Inventory
spikes
give
buyers
the
upper
hand

Housing
markets
have
suffered
from
low
inventory
dating
back
to
the
financial
crisis
of
the
late
2000s,
but
that’s
been
changing
since
mortgage
rates
began
to
rise
in
the
summer
of
2022.

Florida
hasn’t
been
any
different.
While
the
current
year-over-year
inventory
gains
in
Florida’s
major
metropolitan
areas
aren’t
too
much
higher
than
the
current
national
rate
of
31%,
that
only
recently
became
the
case.

At
the
beginning
of
November,
the
year-over-year
gain
in
U.S.
inventory
was
about
30%,
much
lower
than
that
of

Miami
(+46%),

Tampa
(+68%),

Orlando
(+66%)
and

Jacksonville
(+49%).

Additional
inventory
is
not
leading
to
more
sales

It’s
hard
to
overstate
just
how
fast
homes
were
selling
in
Florida’s
markets
during
the
pandemic,
but
since
2022,
new

pending
home
sales
have
been
consistently
negative
year
over
year.

At
the
end
of
2022
and
2023,
the
year-over-year
numbers
were
dramatically
lower,
partly
because
they
were
coming
off
unsustainable
highs.
Despite
that,
pending
sales
in
Florida
metros
have
only
briefly
turned
positive.

Jacksonville
started
2025
with
a
slight
bump
up,
but
it
was
short-lived
and
it’s
now
down
by
8.3%.

It’s
also
notable
how
volatile
sales
have
been
in
some
Florida
markets.
Since
the
fall
of
2023,
year-over-year
new
pending
sales
have
ranged
from
-23.5%
to
+11.3%.
Miami
has
been
less
volatile
but
is
presently
down
3.9%.

Prices
are
sinking,
even
in
Miami

The
proverbial

“flight
to
the
suburbs”
in
2020
and
2021
turned
a
number
of
wealthy
New
Yorkers
into
Floridians.
The
influx
of
money
led
to
rapid
home-price
appreciation
in
Florida
—
and
especially
in
Miami.
But
the
market
malaise
has
started
to
reverse
this
trend. 

Tampa’s
and
Jacksonville’s
pending
home
sale
price
flirted
with
negative
year-over-year
price
growth
since
September
2024,
and
it’s
been
consistently
down
since
the
start
of
2025.
Even
Miami
experienced
negative
growth
every
week
in
April. 

The
four
biggest
Florida
metro
markets
are,
on
average,
seeing
homes
sell
for
less
than
the
list
price.
Of
the
nine
U.S.
markets
with
the
largest
differences
between
sale
and
list
prices,
four
are
in
Florida
and
the
top
three
are
in

Texas
(San
Antonio,
Houston
and
Dallas).

Macroeconomic
headwinds
could
make
things
worse

Housing
market
forecasts
for
2025
predicted
a
more
active
market,
partially
driven
by
the
expectation
of
lower
mortgage
rates
and
easing

inflation.
Neither
of
these
things
have
happened. 

President
Donald
Trump’s

aggressive
trade
policy
and
tariffs
pushed
rates
back
up
near
7%,
and
there’s
a
broad
expectation
that
inflation
will
rise
again
due
to
market
volatility.

This
has
led
to
a
shocking

32%
drop
in
consumer
confidence
since
the
start
of
the
year.
A


Redfin
survey
found
that
as
a
result
of
the
tariffs,
24%
of
respondents
have
scrapped
plans
to
make
a
major
purchase
like
a
home,
while
another
32%
are
putting
these
plans
on
hold.

There
are
early
signs
of
this
playing
out.
Existing-home
sales
in

March
sustained
a
monthly
drop
of
5.9%,
landing
at
an
annualized
pace
that’s
below
that
of
2024
—
one
of
the
most
dismal
years
for
the
housing
market
in
recent
memory.

Florida
is
also
dealing
with
the
issue
of
skyrocketing
home
insurance
costs.
According
to
data
from

Cotality,
property
insurance
in
the
Sunshine
State
has

risen
60%
since
2019.
Seven
major
insurers
have
withdrawn
from
Florida
altogether,
and
almost
one-quarter
of
homeowners
are
on
the
state-backed
insurance
program.

It
will
likely
be
into
the
summer
before
we
know
the
full
impact
of
the
trade
war
on
the
housing
market.
There
are
reasons
to
believe
things
are
better
than
the
top-line
data
suggests,
but
the
uncertainty
isn’t
good
news
to
Florida
housing
markets
that
could
use
a
boost.