What
should
we
make
of
the
dueling
reports?
Here
are
five
takeaways.

Low
inventory
is
becoming
less
of
a
problem

For
years,
the
housing
market
has
been
starved
for

inventory,
and
that
problem
increased
when
the
post-pandemic
market
came
to
a
halt.
Homeowners
who
secured
mortgages
with
historically
interest
rates
aren’t
inclined
to
give
up
that
rate
by
selling
their
homes
and
buying
a
new
one.

But
the
severity
of
this
problem
is
easing,
as
the
number
of
homes
for
sale
is
rising
rapidly
all
over
the
country
across
the
new
and
existing
segments.
But
it’s
more
pronounced
in
the
existing-homes
market,
where
inventory
is
up
almost
20%
year
over
year.

The
trend
is
particularly
strong
in
the
Northeast
and
the
South,
where
inventory
is
up
25%
and
16.6%,
respectively.
This
is
true
for
both
new
and
existing
homes.

Existing-home
sales
are
not
rising
at
the
pace
of
inventory

Despite
having
many
more
choices
than
they
did
a
year
ago,

homebuyers
aren’t
jumping
into
the
market
at
a
rate
that
matches
the
rise
in
for-sale
supply.
Existing-home
sales
in
March
actually
declined
by
2.4%
year
over
year.

It’s
a
different
story
with
new-home
sales,
which
are
up
6%
from
a
year
ago.
Inventory
has
grown
by
8.4%
in
that
time,
suggesting
that
demand
for
new
homes
is
more
responsive
to
increases
in
supply.

Pending
sales
foreshadow
a
more
active
market

While
new-
and
existing-home
sales
tell
us
something
about
the
market
from
the
beginning
of
the
year,

pending
home
sales
are
more
about
what’s
to
come.
The
Pending
Home
Sales
Index
(PHSI)
from
NAR
rose
6.1%
in
March,
the
largest
monthly
increase
since
December
2023.

Lower
mortgage
rates
in
March
spurred
the
market

Home
sales
continue
to
be
highly
responsive
to
changes
in

mortgage
rates.
According
to
NAR,
the
average
rate
in
March
was
6.65%,
down
substantially
from
January
and
February,
when
the
average
rates
were
6.96%
and
6.84%,
respectively.

The
relief
was
short-lived,
however,
as
mortgage
rates
shot
up
in
the
aftermath
of
President
Donald
Trump’s
new

global
tariff
regime
on
April
2.
Rates
peaked
last
week
at
7%
but
have
since

fallen
slightly
to
6.93%.

Tariffs
cloud
the
future
of
the
housing
market

No
one
knows
what
to
expect
moving
forward
because
of
Trump’s
approach
to

tariffs.
The
president
has
enacted
and
paused
so
many
different
tariffs
during
his
first
100
days
in
office
that
markets
have
turned
volatile
due
to
the
uncertainty
alone.

It’s
possible
this
is
contributing
to
the
divergence
between
declining
existing-home
sales
and
the
rise
in
inventory.

Consumer
confidence
has
tanked
on
the
expectation
of
higher

inflation,
which
will
prompt
some
prospective
homebuyers
to
pause
their
home
searches.

Conversely,
some
sellers
may
want
to
get
out
in
front
of
any
economic
turbulence
by
listing
their
home
for
sale
now
rather
than
later.
And
if
rates
stay
high
and
the
economy
sags,
it
will
likely
repress
the
entire
housing
market.