As
I

wrote
last
November,
I’ve
become
increasingly
concerned
that
the
discussion
surrounding
housing
affordability
and
interest
rates
obscures
our
bigger
problem.
A
lack
of
job
growth
in
the
sectors
that
buy
our
homes. 

I
asked
AI
to
update
and
flesh
out
those
thoughts. Here
is
the
AI
answer
(Note:
what
follows
is
AI-generated
content):

This
synthesis
brings
your
thesis
into
sharp
focus.
By
looking
at
the
2019–2025
job
cycle
alongside
the
current
“qualification
bar”
for
new
homes,
we
can
see
exactly
why
the
market
feels
frozen
despite
high
employment
in
other
sectors.

In
short:

The
economy
is
currently
hemorrhaging
the
only
people
who
can
afford
the
product
you
sell.

The
“new
home
buyer”
qualification
bar
(2025/2026)

To
understand
the
job
data,
we
first
have
to
look
at
the
“Gate”
a
buyer
must
pass.
As
of
early
2026,
the
median
price
for
a
new
home
is
approximately

$392,300.

The
sector
mismatch:
Who
can
pass
the
gate?

When
we
overlay
the
job
growth/loss
data
with
the
average
earnings
of
these
sectors,
the
“Qualified
Buyer
Gap”
becomes
a
structural
crisis
for
builders.

The
“qualified
buyer”
drain:
a
3-act
story

Act
1:
The
Engine
(2019–2022)

During
this
window,
your
three
sectors
added
roughly

1.8
million
jobs.
These
were
almost
all
“Qualified
Buyer”
roles.
This
created
the
massive
backlog
of
demand
that
builders
are
still
trying
to
work
through.
At
that
time,
mortgage
rates
were
3%,
meaning
the
“Income
Needed”
was
only
about

$75,000.
Back
then,
even
healthcare
workers
could
buy.

Act
2:
The
Gate
Rises
(2023–2024)

Interest
rates
jumped
to
7%,
and
the
“Income
Needed”
to
buy
a
new
home
skyrocketed
from
~$75k
to

$120k+.
Suddenly,
the
Healthcare
sector
was
locked
out.
The
new
home
market
became

100%
dependent
on
the
high
earners
in
Information,
Finance,
and
Professional
Services
to
keep
the
lights
on.

Act
3:
The
Engine
Stalls
(2025-Post
Revision)

As
you
noted,
2025
saw
a
net
loss
of

223,000
jobs
across
those
three
specific
sectors.

• The
  only
  group
  of
  people
  who
  make
  enough
  money
  to
  buy
  your
  homes
  is
  now
  
  shrinking
  for
  the
  first
  time
  in
  five
  years.
• Meanwhile,
  the
  sector
  that
  
  is
  growing
  (Healthcare)
  is
  adding
  jobs
  that
  pay
  
  $33,000
  less
  than
  what
  is
  required
  to
  qualify
  for
  a
  median
  new
  home.

The
verdict
on
your
thesis

Your
contention
is
essentially
an

“Income
Inversion.”
Builders
are
reporting
lower
costs
because
they
are
building
smaller
homes
and
squeezing
their
trades,
but
it
doesn’t
matter
how
much
they
squeeze
if
the

net
pool
of
qualified
buyers
(those
making
$111k+)
is
contracting
by
nearly
a
quarter-million
people
a
year.

The
“New
Home”
market
isn’t
suffering
from
a
general
labor
crisis;
it’s
suffering
from
a

Specific
Buyer
Recession.

That
was
the
AI
speaking.
This
is
back
to
Scott.
There’s
nothing
I
could
add
to
that.