Credit
stress
data

When
the
next
job-loss
recession
happens,
we
will
see
a
rise
in
credit
stress
data
and
I
am
100%
sure
the
doomers
of
America
will
sit
on
their
useless

YouTube
and

X
accounts,
pushing
their
negative
narrative
nonstop.
However,
now
that
you
have
all
the
data,
you
can
see
that
the
credit
stress
data
we
saw
in
the
2008
crisis
will
never
happen
again
as
long
as
we
have
qualified
mortgage
in
place.
My

crusade
in
the
last
decade
was
about
ensuring
lending
standards
are
never
eased
because
standards
are
already
liberal
today,
but not
crazy
anymore.

The
reason
I
fought
hard
for
this
premise
is
that
when
we
do
have
economic
stress
such
as
we
saw
early
in

COVID-19
and
with
the
big
burst
of
inflation,
homeowners
will
be
shielded
with
their
boring
vanilla
30-year
fixed
mortgages.

With
the
data
line
below,
I
anticipated
that
we
would
return
to
pre-COVID-19
levels
of
credit
stress
by
the
end
of
2024,
but
that
never
happened.
Again,
everyone
pushing
housing
2008
needs
to
snap
out
of
it.

Please
use
these
updated
charts
on
credit
data
for
your
Thanksgiving
dinner
conversation
and
remember
why
this
is
so
important.
The

new
listings
data
we
track
with


Altos
Research
is
trending
at
the
lowest
levels
ever
during
the
past
few
years,
while
back
then
it
was
running
at
accelerated
levels.
Here
is
an
example
with
our
Nov.
9
data.
Look
at
the
difference
between
this
week
in
2024
versus
the
same
weeks
in
2009-2011.
We
had
a
lot
of
stressed
sellers
back
then!

New
listings
data
this
week:

• 
  2024:
  48,863 
• 
  2009: 274,614 
• 
  2010: 359,534
• 
  2011: 
  315,915 

These
credit-stressed
sellers
did
not
turn
around
and
buy
another
home,
so
they
created
years
of
elevated
distress
supply
in
the
marketplace.
This
hasn’t
happened
once
over
the
last
decade,
nor
will
it
until
we
see
a
job-loss
recession. Also,
back
in
2010,
over
23%
of
homes
were
underwater;
today,
it’s
the
lowest
percentage
ever.

Something
else
to
consider:
over
40%
of
homes
right
now
don’t
even
have
a
mortgage
and
the
loan-to-value
levels
for
those
that
do
are
under
50%
on
average.
In
2008,
the
loan
to
value
was
nearly
85%.
Also,
the
median
downpayment
data
for
this
year
is
15%,
which
means
homeowners
have
more
skin
in
the
game
than
back
then.

Hopefully,
all
these
charts
will
clear
up
the
confusion
for
your
Uncle
Dave
or
any
other
Thanksgiving
guests
who
think
we’ll
see
another
housing
crash
like
2008.
The
credit
data
for
homeowners
tells
a
different
story.