This
is
why
Keller
said
he
and
his
firm
begin
their
Family
Reunion
conference
each
year
with
Keller’s
“State
of
the
Housing
Market”
presentation.
In
2026,
Keller
and
his
team
are
anticipating

4.3
million
home
sales,
up
from
the
4.1
million
annual
rate
recorded
for
the
last
three
years.
Looking
at
historic
trends,
Keller
noted
that
it
is
typically
after
three
consecutive
years
of
slow
home
sales
that
things
tend
to
pick
up,
giving
him
confidence
that
things
will
pick
up
this
year.

In
addition
to
more
home
sales,
Keller
and
his
economists
expect
home
price
appreciation
to
continue,
but
at
a
slower
pace
than
it
did
over
the
COVID-19
pandemic.
However,
even
with
a
slower
pace
of
appreciation,
Keller
said
home
prices
nationwide
will
remain
roughly
7.9%
above
the
4%
average
annual
home
price
appreciation
trend
line. 

These
numbers,
according
to
Keller,
will
culminate
in
the
industry
as
a
whole
doing
a
projected
$2.4
trillion
in
sales
volume
in
2026,
the
third
best
year
on
record.
However,
inventory
is
expected
to
remain
constrained
in
2026,
leading
Keller
to
project
an
average
of
5.9
transaction
sides
per
agent
in
2026,
well
below
the
historic
average
of
9.5
sides
per
agent.
Still
he
and
his
team
estimate
agents
to
record
an
average
of
$3.01
million
in
volume
in
2026,
again
the
third
best
year
on
record. 

“This
means
that
each
transaction
is
more
important
than
ever,”
Jason
Abrams,
the
head
of
industry
and
learning
for
Keller
Williams,
said. 

With
many
agents
anticipating
having
to
work
with
on
the
fence
consumers
this
year,
Keller
reiterated
his
mantra
that
“it
is
always
a
good
time
to
buy
the
right
piece
of
real
estate.”
According
to
Keller
the
economic
data
support
this. 

“Don’t
whine”
says
Keller,
the
market
is
good

Perhaps
one
of
the
best
pieces
of
news
for
consumers
in
2026
is
the
lower

mortgage
rates,
with
Keller
and
his
team
projecting
an
average
of
5.9%
after
two

Federal
Reserve
rate
cuts
this
year.
Despite
being
above
pandemic
era
rates,
these
projected
mortgage
rates
are
still
below
the
historic
average
of
7.72%.

“If
you’ve
gotten
in
the
business
in
the
last
12
to
13
years,
you
don’t
even
know
what
normal
is.
You’ve
never
experienced
that,”
Keller
said,
“If
you
look
at
the
first
10
years
of
my
career,
where
interest
rates
were
at
18%,
days
on
market
were
10
months
and
inventory
was
at
11
months
of
supply,
I
still
hit
all
my
goals.
The
agents
who
were
really
hitting
it
hard
were
doing
phenomenal.
So
don’t
whine!”

Additionally,
Keller
and
his
team
noted
that
21.2%
of
existing
homeowners
with
mortgages
currently
have
rates
at
6%
or
higher.

“This
represents
what
could
be
the
‘Great
Unlock,’”
Abrams
said.
“You
have
all
these
folks
that
wouldn’t
move
because
the
rates
were
so
low
or
they
became
accidental
landlords,
and
as
this
number
continues
to
grow,
people
aren’t
necessarily
tied
to
the
mortgage,
which
means
they’re
not
tied
to
the
house,
which
could
unlock
the
market.”

More
inventory
could
of
course
help
improve
affordability,
which
Keller
and
his
team
say
is
already
moving
in
the
right
direction.
Data
shows
that
in
2025,
on
average,
32%
of
a
homeowner’s
income
went
towards
the
principal
and
interest
on
their
mortgage,
down
from
34%
in
2023
and
49%
in
1981.

“Looking
back
at
my
career
and
1981,
when
I
see
32%,
I
think
that’s
awesome,
but
that
is
why
perspective
is
so
important,”
Keller
said.
“If
you
go
back
to
2012,
it
is
almost
a
decade
and
a
half
where
consumers
got
used
to
underpaying
the
historic
average
for
affordability
(27%),
so
when
it
goes
back
to
the
norm
they
think
it
is
expensive.
If
you
aren’t
there
to
explain
it
to
them,
they
will
have
a
misguided
understanding
of
what’s
really
going
on.”

Keller
also
noted
his
projected

unemployment
rate
of
4.2%
in
2026
and
projected

inflation
rate
of
2%
in
2026
as
other
reasons
why
it
is
a
good
time
for
consumers
to
transact
real
estate. 

Hitting
the
headlines

In
addition
to
talking
about
the
economy
and
the

housing
market,
Keller
also
addresses
some
of
the
real
estate
industry’s
largest
headlines
over
the
past
12
months. 

When
it
comes
to
the
news
of
the


Compass–Anywhere
merger,
Keller
said
he
is
in
wait-and-see
mode. 

“Compass
has
this
brand
that
they
have
built
and
now
they
have
to
put
that
name
on
a
lot
of
other
brands,”
he
said.
“I
think
that’s
going
to
be
interesting
and
we
will
see
how
that
works
out
for
them.”

As
for
the
housing
industry’s
other
headline-grabbing
merger
in
2025:

Rocket’s

acquisition
of

Redfin,
Keller
has
already
made
up
his
mind. 

“It
is
kind
of
a
nothing
burger,”
Keller
said.
“They
are
not
trying
to
increase
the
sales
volume
of
Redfin.
So,
whatever
Redfin
was,
is
what
Redfin
is.”

Finally,
Keller
also
weighed
in
on
the
industry’s

ongoing
private
listing
debate,
stating
that
his
stance
is
that
the
“consumer
is
always
right.”
However,
Keller
did
issue
a
warning
to
agents
about
disclosures
and
how
agents
are
talking
to
clients
about
private
listing
networks. 

“I’ve
looked
at
other
competitors’
disclosures
around
this,
and
to
be
candid
with
you,
they’re
thin.
They’re
not
actually
a
side-by-side
comparison
and
understanding
of
the
pros
and
cons.
So,
my
concern
is
on
consumers
getting
the
whole
truth.
If
we’re
not
using
the
proper
disclosures
when
we’re
talking
to
a
seller
about
whether
to
go
private
or
straight
public,
just
remember
if
you’re
not
fully
disclosing,
you’ll
be
the
next
person
sued
because
it’ll
be
the
next
big
class
action
in
this
industry.”