s
this
changing
the
housing
market
in
the
nation’s
capital?


Altos
data
suggests
the
dynamic
in
Washington
has
shifted
since
the
beginning
of
Trump’s
second
term.

As
things
stand,
housing
supply
in
Washington
is
rising
rapidly.
After
years
of
stagnant
inventory,
the
weekly
average
of
homes
for
sale
is
up
34.8%
year
over
year,
while
new
listings
have
spiked
by
9.3%
on
a
90-day
rolling
basis.

New
listings
rise
every
spring,
but
the
sharp
uptick
is
notable
because
in
the
last
week
of
February,
they
were
down
10.9%
year
over
year.
For
it
to
swing
from
decisively
negative
to
decisively
positive
in
such
a
short
period
of
time
—
and
over
a
90-day
average
—
indicates
a
significant
increase
in
new
listings
relative
to
last
year.

But
having
additional
options
is
not
yet
enticing
buyers
to
jump
into
the
market
at
the
same
pace
that
inventory
is
rising.
Pending
new
sales
on
a
90-day
rolling
basis
have
been
negative
on
an
annualized
basis
since
February
after
a
strong
finish
to
2024.

Sellers
have
responded
by
reducing
prices.
For
years,
the
share
of
listings
that
received
a
price
reduction
in
D.C.
has
been
20
to
25
points
higher
than
the
share
with
a
price
increase,
but
this
year-over-year
trend
has
shifted.

During
the
fall
of
2024,
the
yearly
gain
for
listings
with
price
increases
was
above
50%.
It’s
now
down
by
23.7%.
The
inverse
happened
with
the
percentage
of
listings
that
had
a
price
cut.
In
October,
that
share
bottomed
out
down
14.5%,
but
it’s
now
up
by
17.1%.

Is
this
a
sign
that
federal
layoffs
are
undercutting
Washington’s
housing
market?
There’s
important
context
to
consider
when
answering
this
question,
and
it’s
important
to
not
equate
correlation
with
causation.

First,
rising
new
listings
and
inventory
are
a
seasonal
trend,
and
even
the
sharp
rise
is
a
dynamic
that’s
currently
present
in

many
markets
across
the
country.
Sales
are
increasing
as
well,
just
not
at
the
same
pace
as
2024.

Second,
it’s
hard
to
know
how
many
people
have
been
affected
because
the
current
status
of
any
given
federal
agency
is
seemingly
always
in
flux,
with
workers
being
laid
off
one
day
and
told
come
back
to
work
the
next.
Whether
layoffs
have
happened
in
numbers
that
could
swing
the
market
is
unknown.

Third,
there
are
other
actions
by
the
Trump
administration
that
might
prompt
sellers
to
list
quickly
and
buyers
to
hit
pause.
This
include
Trump’s
dramatic
new

tariff
regime,
the

stock
market
crash
that
followed,
and
the
widely
held
expectation
that
tariffs
will
cause

inflation
to
spike.

Fourth,

mortgage
rates
have
shot
up
to
7%
as
a
result
of
the
tariff
announcement
and
the
president’s
remarks
about

replacing

Federal
Reserve
Chair
Jerome
Powell.
Homebuyers
are
very
sensitive
to
rates
rising
by
so
much
in
a
short
time
frame.
That
may
be
holding
buyers
back
more
than
the
federal
layoffs.

What’s
different
this
time
with
supply
is
simply
the
degree
to
which
it
has
grown. 

Since
the
last
week
of
February,
inventory
is
up
in
Washington,
D.C.,
by
42%.
During
the
same
period
last
year,
it
was
up
22%.
New
listings
are
up
81%
since
the
last
week
of
February,
compared
to
54%
growth
during
the
same
period
in
2024. 

Conversely,
new
pending
home
sales
have
risen
by
43.4%
since
the
last
week
of
February,
a
decline
from
the
48.9%
figure
in
2024.

Because
so
much
has
changed
so
quickly,
it
will
likely
be
well
into
the
summer
before
the
data
shows
any
impact
from
new
federal
policy
and
the
reduction
in
the
federal
workforce.

But
thus
far,
the
housing
market
in
D.C.
is
experiencing
a
rise
in
supply
at
a
pace
that
is
not
yet
being
matched
by
demand.