Weekly
pending
sales

Our
weekly
pending
sales
data
indicate
that
these
homes
are
going
into
contract
and
will
most
likely
be
included
in
the
existing
home
sales
report
30-60
days
later.
We
have
seen
good
year-over-year
growth
the
last
two
weeks
and
a
big
reason
for
that
is
that
this
year
is
that
rates
have
stayed
below
6.64%
for
the
previous
15
weeks,
whereas
last
year,

mortgage
rates
at
this
time
were
rising
toward
7%
and
higher. 

This
week’s
data
occurred
despite
the
veterans’
day
holiday
last
week,
which
is
impressive,
as
our
weekly
data
is
typically
affected
during
a
holiday
week.
We
are
dealing
with
lower
year-over-year
comps,
but
still
it’s
good
to
see
the
two-week
run
with
our
pending
sales
data. 

Weekly
pending
sales
for
last
week:

• 2025:
  60,722
• 2024:
  52,642

Purchase
application
data

We’ve
had
15
weeks
of
testing
the
housing
data
in
2025
with
mortgage
rates
under
6.64%.
In
the
last
few
years,
housing
data
has

performed
better
when
mortgage
rates
have
fallen
below
6.64%
and
headed
toward
6%.
Rates
have
risen
from
their
lows
recently.
As
always,
the
Fed
tends
to
panic
when
rates
drop
toward
6%
and
becomes
hawkish.
Regardless
of
that,
let’s
take
a
look
at
the
last
15
weeks
of
data.

Over
the
last
15
weeks,
we
have
had
nine
positive
week-to-week
prints,
six
negative
prints,
and
15
consecutive
weeks
of
double-digit
year-over-year
growth
in
purchase
apps.
Last
week
saw
a
6%
increase
from
the
previous
week
but
a
31%
increase
year-over-year. 

Earlier
in
the
year,
we
saw
healthy
year-over-year
growth,
but
the
weekly
data
was
choppy.
The
last
15
weeks
have
been
the
best
of
the
year
so
far.
Now,
the
year-over-year
comparisons
are
easier,
as
rates
were
rising
last
year
at
this
time.
Still,
it’s
good
to
see
the
growth
in
purchase
apps
in
both
the
week-to-week
data
and
the
year-over-year
data. 

Here
is
the
weekly
data
for
2025
so
far:

• 21
  positive
  readings
• 17
  negative
  readings
• 6
  flat
  prints
• 41
  straight
  weeks
  of
  positive
  year-over-year
  data
• 28
  consecutive
  weeks
  of
  double-digit
  growth
  year
  over
  year 

Mortgage
rates
and
the
10-year
yield

In
my

2025
forecast,
I
anticipated
the
following
ranges:

• Mortgage
  rates
  between
  5.75%
  and
  7.25%
• The
  10-year
  yield
  fluctuating
  between
  3.80%
  and
  4.70%

The
10-year
yield
has
been
range-bound
recently,
between
4.06%
and
4.15%.
I
believe
the

Federal
Reserve
accomplished
its
mission
to
raise
mortgage
rates
above
6%
at
the
last
meeting,
and
so
far,
it’s
working,
as
not
only
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
but
also
a
host
of
Fed
members
have
been
very
hawkish.
I
discussed
this
on
the

most
recent
episode
of
the
HousingWire
Daily
podcast.

Mortgage
rates
started
the
week
at
6.34%
and
ended
the
week
at
6.38%,
according
to

Mortgage
News
Daily.
The
Fed
is
getting
what
it
wants,
with
rates
moving
higher
in
response
to
its
language
and
press
releases.
The

loan
lock
data
from

Polly
showed
rates
closing
the
week
at
6.38%

Mortgage
spreads

Mortgage
spreads
have
been
the

best
story
for
mortgage
rates
in
2025.
We
are
only
0.33%
basis
points
away
from
normal
levels
again.
The
main
thing
to
remember
is
that
mortgage
rates
would
not
have
approached
6%
if
the
spreads
hadn’t
improved
this
year,
and
we
still
have
some
room
for
improvement
next
year. 

Historically,
mortgage
spreads
have
ranged
between
1.60%
and
1.80%.
If
the
spreads
today
were
as
bad
as
they
were
at
the
peak
of
2023,
mortgage
rates
would
currently
be
0.97% 
percentage
points
higher.
Conversely,
if
the
spreads
returned
to
their
normal
range,
mortgage
rates
would
be
0.53%
to
0.33%
lower
than
today’s
level.
With
normal
spreads,
mortgage
rates
would
be
at
5.85%-
6.05%.

Weekly
housing
inventory
data

Housing
inventory
growth
during
the
prime
selling
season
increased
by
33%
year
over
year,
and
it
has
recently
decreased
to
16%.
As
housing
demand
picked
up
slightly
and
new
listings
began
to
decline,
the
growth
rate
percentage
of
inventory
has
slowed
by
half,
but
remains
up
year
over
year
in
a
healthy
manner.

The
year-over-year
growth
has
provided
a
much
more
buyer-friendly
marketplace,
but
we
are
entering
the
seasonal
decline
in
inventory
for
2025
so
I
am
expecting
inventory
to
move
lower
until
we
find
the
seasonal
bottom
in
2026.

• Weekly
  inventory
  change
  (Nov.
  7-Nov.
  14):
  Inventory
  fell
  from
  
  842,242
  to
  
  839,506
• Same
  week
  last
  year
  (Nov.
  8-Nov.
  15):
  Inventory
  rose
  from
  
  721,576
  to
  
  721,980

New
listings
data

In
2025,
new
listings
data
have
shown
decent
improvement
as
we
strive
to
return
to
normal
levels.
A
return
to
normal
would
mean
that
the
seasonal
increase
in
new
listings
would
result
in
a
few
months
with
80,000
to
100,000
new
listings
per
week.

My
forecast
this
year
was
similar
to
last
year’s,
predicting
we
would
reach
80,000
new
listings
per
week
for
the
first
time
in
years.
Last
year,
we
never
reached
that
number,
but
we
did
this
year.
However,
once
we
reached
over
80,000
in
May
of
this
year,
we
didn’t
grow
from
that
point,
so
it
was
a
bit
disappointing
on
that
front.
Nonetheless,
the
new
listing
story
in
2025
has
been
a
positive
one. 

To
give
you
some
perspective,
during
the

years
of
the
housing
bubble
crash,
new
listings
were
soaring
between
250,000
and
400,000
per
week
for
many
years.
Here’s
last
week’s
new
listings
data
over
the
past
two
years:

• 2025:
  57,251
• 2024:
  51,832 

Price-cut
percentage

In
a
typical
year,
approximately
one-third
of
homes
experience
price
reductions,
highlighting
the
dynamic
nature
of
the
housing
market.
Homeowners
adjust
their
sale
prices
as
inventory
levels
rise
and
mortgage
rates
stay
elevated.
With
more
inventory
and
higher
rates,
our
price-cut
percentage
data
is
higher
than
last
year.

For
my

2025
price
forecast,
I
anticipated
a
modest
increase
in
home
prices
of
approximately
1.77%.
This
suggests
that
2025
will
likely
see
negative
real
home
prices
again.
The
rise
in
price
reductions
this
year
compared
to
last
year
reinforces
my
cautious
growth
forecast
for
2025.

Here
are
the
percentages
of
homes
that
saw
price
reductions
in
the
previous
week
in
the
last
two
years:

• 2025:
  41.7%
• 2024:
  40%

The
week
ahead:
Finally
some
federal
data

We
are
finally
getting
a
jobs
report,
but
it
will
be
the
September
jobs
report
on
November
20.
The

Census
Bureau
is
not
expected
to
release
housing
starts
and
new
home
sales
data
this
week.
However,
we
will
get
the
existing
home
sales
report
and
the
home
builder
confidence
data.

The
government
shutdown
may
impact
existing
home
sales,
but
only
due
to
the
delay
in
closings;
if
that
happens,
the
impact
will
likely
be
reported
in
the
next
month.
Additionally,
we
will
have
several
Fed
presidents
speaking
this
week,
which
became
a
major
story
last
week
regarding
rates.