Existing-home sales drop sharply in March as economic uncertainty mounts

By Housing News

Is
economic
uncertainty
beginning
to
impact
the
housing
market?


Existing-home
sales

in
March
clocked
in
at
a
seasonally
adjusted
annual
rate
of
4.02
million,
2.4%
lower
than
one
year
ago
and
a
5.9%
drop
compared
to

February,

according
to
the
newest
report
from
the


National
Association
of
Realtors

(NAR). 

Sales
are
falling
despite
rapidly
growing
inventory,
which
is
19.8%
higher
than
last
year.
The
four
months
of
supply,
the
highest
level
since
September
2024,
reflects
this.
The
drop
in
sales
and
gain
in
supply
didn’t
greatly
affect
the
median
price,
which
rose
2.7%
year
over
year
to
$403,700.

Sales
in
a
single
month
tend
to
be
initiated
in
the
preceding
months,
so
some
percentage
of
March
sales
may
not
have
been
affected
by
the
market
turmoil
that
occurred
in
April.
But
existing-home
sales
figures
may
be
an
early
sign
that
homebuyers
are
reluctant
to
make
big
purchases
with
a
cloudy
macroeconomic
outlook.

“Uncertainty
and
anxiety
are
going
to
cloud
the
spring
housing
market
this
year,”


Bright
MLS

chief
economist
Lisa
Sturtevant
said
in
a
statement.
“Lower

mortgage
rates

and
more
inventory
were
expected
to
bring
more
home
shoppers
out
this
spring.

“But
while
some
buyers
will
take
advantage
of
more
listings
and
more
room
for
negotiation,
others
will
hold
back,
unwilling
to
make
a
big
decision
in
these
current
uneasy
times.”

The
overall
drop
in
sales
is
largely
driven
by
a
4.2%
year-over-year
pullback
in
the
South,
which
makes
up
the
highest
share
of
existing-home
sales
among
the
four
regions.
But
the
declines
were
present
in
all
four
regions,
led
by
the
West,
which
fell
9.4%
compared
to
February.

The
drop
in
existing-home
sales
counters
the
positive
numbers
in

new-home
sales

announced
this
week.
New
homes
sold
at
an
annual
rate
of
724,000
in
March,
a
6%
rise
compared
to
the
same
month
in
2024.
That
trends
was
also
largely
driven
by
the
South,
which
posted
a
22.3%
annual
jump.

Anticipation
for
April
sales
reports
will
be
high
as
they
will
be
the
first
to
account
for
President
Donald
Trump’s

global
tariffs
announcement

on
April
2.
While
he
paused
the
tariffs
just
hours
after
they
took
effect,
the
scope
and
scale
of
them
have
caused
stock
market
indexes,
the
bond
market
and
the
dollar
to
drop
significantly
over
the
course
of
the
month.

How
this
impacts
the
housing
market
remains
to
be
seen,
but
more
up-to-date
data
suggests
there
will
be
one.


Consumer
confidence

reports
show
sharp
drops
for
April
and

homebuilder
sentiment

has
also
declined.
The
March
report
on

new
construction

disclosed
a
9.7%
annual
decline
in
single-family
starts
and
permits
dropped
too.

Weekly
mortgage
applications

fell
by
12.7%

as

mortgage
rates

have
been
pushed
back
up
near
7%
as
a
result
of
the
bond
market
sell-off.

In
some
U.S.
cities,

inventory
is
rising

considerably
without
buyers
coming
into
the
market.
Sellers
may
be
listing
in
the
hope
of
getting
out
ahead
of
any
macroeconomic
decline,
while
buyers
could
be
waiting
to
see
how
things
unfold.

The
existing-home
sales
report
certainly
supports
that
theory,
with
inventory
rising
dramatically
and
sales
falling
by
considerable
margins.

With
markets
remaining
volatile,
Trump
has
walked
back
some
of
the
rhetoric
that
has
spooked
investors,
primarily
the
current
145%
tariff
on

China

and

threats

to
oust

Federal
Reserve

Chair
Jerome
Powell.

But
the
famously
mercurial
president
could
change
course
on
any
given
day,
and
the
uncertainty
alone
has
the
potential
to
impact
housing
markets.

“Buyers
and
sellers
are
both
understandably
cautious
given
economic
uncertainty,”

Compass

President
Neda
Navab
said
in
a
statement.
“The
daily
zig
zag
of
news
headlines,
stock
market
charts,
and
economic
reports
are
leading
to
more
drawn-out
decision-making.

“While
determined
buyers
are
still
navigating
the
market,
especially
when
homes
are
priced
accurately,
others
are
taking
a
wait-and-see
approach.”

 

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