From


BLS: Total
nonfarm
payroll
employment
increased
by
147,000
in
June,
and
the
unemployment
rate
changed
little
at
4.1
percent,
the
U.S.
Bureau
of
Labor
Statistics
reported
today.
Job
gains
occurred
in
state
government
and
health
care.
Federal
government
continued
to
lose
jobs.

Jobs
breakdown

While
federal
workers
are
losing
jobs,
there
has
been
a
significant
increase
in
state
hiring,
particularly
in
education.
This
influx
skewed
the
jobs
report,
which
would
have
shown
only
74,000
new
jobs
if
government
hiring
were
excluded.

Talk
about
the
crazy
irony
of
2025!
President
Trump
could
have
used
a
soft
labor
report
to
press
Powell
for

rate
cuts
in
July,
but
because
there
was
a
boom
in
government
labor
in
this
jobs
report
itself,
it
doesn’t
scream
aggressive
rate
cuts,
it
just
shows
a
slowdown
in
private
payroll.

Unemployment
rate

The
unemployment
rate
has
decreased
to
approximately
4.1%,
which
the
Federal
Reserve
considers
a
desirable
level.
However,
as
we
have
previously
mentioned,
the
slowing
growth
of
the
labor
force
suggests
that
the
unemployment
rate
could
remain
lower
than
many
people
anticipate
—
unless
significant
layoffs
start
to
happen.

In
the
past,
we
experienced
substantial
labor
force
growth,
which
impacted
job
data
and
led
to
an
increase
in
the
unemployment
rate;
however,
this
is
no
longer
the
case
in
2025.
Immigration
has
drastically
slowed,
and
each
year,
more
baby
boomers
are
leaving
the
workforce. 

Residential
labor

The
primary
labor
sector
I
monitor
with
my
economic
cycle
model
is
residential
construction
workers.
If
you
had
followed
this
data
line
since
2010,
you
would
have
had
a
far
better
success
rate
in
predicting
the
economic
cycle
than
99.999%
of
those
who
have
been
consistently
calling
for
a
recession
since
then.
However,
this
data
line
has
shown
a
slight
month-to-month
decline,
so
we
will
continue
to
keep
a
close
watch
on
it.

Jobless
claims
data

Another
key
metric
for
my
economic
cycle,
especially
since
2022,
is
the
jobless
claims
data.
While
a
lot
people
still
like
to
make
up
stories
about
this
data,
it
has
been
golden
on
calling
recessions
and
for
me
the
four-week
moving
average
had
to
head
toward
323,000
to
start
talking
about
a
recession.
As
we
sit
here
in
2025,
the
four-week
moving
average
is
at 241,500.
Here
is
the
chart
of
the
initial
claims
data
report
and
it’s
been
falling
down
the
last
few
weeks.

Conclusion

The
10-year
yield
surged
Thursday
morning
following
the
jobs
report
and
is
currently
at
a
key
level
for
the
year,
4.35%.
If
the
economy
is
performing
well,
a
range
of
4.35%
to
4.70%
for
the
10-year
yield
is
perfectly
acceptable.
If
we
start
to
see
more
rate
cuts
implemented,
we
could
lower
this
range.
However,
those
cuts
have
not
yet
materialized. 

This
jobs
report
has
something
for
everyone.
For
me,
it’s
the
same
ongoing
trend:
although
the
labor
market
is
becoming
softer,
it
is
not
completely
breaking.
Notably,
we
saw
losses
in
manufacturing
and
residential
construction
jobs,
while
government
employment
increased
significantly.