Purchase
application
data

Given
the
recent
increase
in
mortgage
rates,
I
anticipated
a
more
significant
decline
in
both
the
week-to-week
and
year-over-year
data.
Surprisingly,
the
week-to-week
decline
was
only
5%,
notably
less
than
my
expectations.
Furthermore,
the
year-over-year
growth
has
improved,
rising
from
10%
to
13%.
This
can
likely
be
attributed
to
the
low
baseline
we
are
currently
working
from.

I
expected
this
trend
if
mortgage
rates
were
moving
from
6.64%
down
toward
6%,
not
staying
elevated
as
they
have.
Also,
the
new
home
sales
market’s
monthly
purchase
application

report
shows
14%
month-to-month
growth
and
5.5%
year-over-year
growth.

Here
is
the
weekly
data
for
2025:

• 7
  positive
  readings
• 4
  negative
  readings
• 3
  flat
  prints

Double-digit
year-over-year
growth
in
purchase
applications
was
not
in
my
cards
unless
mortgage
rates
were
headed
from
6.64%
toward
6%.
This
is
why
the
data
line
surprised
me,
especially
this
week,
more
than
any
week
this
year.
Last
year,
when
mortgage
rates
rose
from
6.63%
toward
7.50%,
we
had
14
negative
prints,
2
flat
and
2
positive
prints
with
zero
year-over-year
growth
weeks.

Weekly
total
pending
sales

The
latest
weekly
total
pending
contract
data
from

Altos
offers
valuable
insights
into
current
trends
in
housing
demand.
Usually,
it
takes
mortgage
rates
to
trend
closer
to
6%
to
get
real
growth
in
the
housing
demand
data
lines,
but
we
have
recently
seen
some
pick-up
on
the
weekly
sales
data,
and
now
our
total
pending
sales
data
is
positive
year
over
year.
Over
the
next
few
weeks,
we
will
have
more
challenging
comps
on
our
weekly
sales
data.

Weekly
pending
contracts
for
the
last
week
over
the
past
several
years:

• 2025:
  391,488
• 2024:
  384,614
• 2023:
  335,017

10-year
yield
and
mortgage
rates

In
my

2025
forecast,
I
anticipated
the
following
ranges:

• Mortgage
  rates
  will
  be
  between
  5.75%
  and
  7.25%
• The
  10-year
  yield
  will
  fluctuate
  between
  3.80%
  and
  4.70%

Last
week
presented
promising
developments
for
the
10-year
yield
and
mortgage
rates.
In
the
face
of
concerns
about
potential
debt
issues
and
a
bond
market
losing
it,
I
maintained
an
optimistic
outlook.
In
the
absence
of
significant
escalation
headlines,
I
foresaw
that
the
10-year
yield
should
stabilize
around
4.35%.

This
optimistic
prediction
was
validated,
as
the
10-year
yield
consistently
hovered
around
this
level
throughout
the
week,
coinciding
with
a
decline
in
mortgage
rates.
Overall,
the
combination
of
falling
yields
and
decreasing
mortgage
rates
indicates
a
less
stressful
bond
market,
which
I
see
as
a
positive
trend
from
prior
weeks.

Powell’s

hawkish
speech
last
week,
which
led
to
a
decline
in
bond
yields,
impressed
me.
The
fact
that
bond
yields
rebounded
on
Thursday
toward
4.33%
demonstrates
a
well-functioning
bond
market,
something
we
needed
to
witness.

Mortgage
spreads

Mortgage
spreads
exploded
higher
after
the
Silicon
Valley
banking
crisis
made
things
worse
in
2023.
However,
mortgage
spreads
did
start
to
improve
in
2024.
At
the
beginning
of
this
year,
this
positive
trend
was
heading
in
the
right
direction,
but
unfortunately,
recent
market
volatility
has
widened
the
spread.

It’s
understandable
to
feel
concerned,
especially
considering
that
if
spreads
were
as
unfavorable
as
they
were
in
2023,
we
could
be
facing
mortgage
rates
close
to
8%.
This
situation
would
have
made
it
incredibly
difficult
for
anyone
looking
to
buy
a
home,
or
sell
and
buy
a
house.
If
mortgage
spreads
were
back
to
normal,
we
would
be
talking
about
mortgage
rates
near
6%.

Historically,
mortgage
spreads
should
range
between
1.60%-1.80%. 

Weekly
housing
inventory
data

The
best
housing
story
for
me
over
2024
and
2025
—
the
growth
of
inventory!
Getting
the
country
back
to
2019
levels
will
make
a
more
balanced
housing
market,
and
in
fact,
all
my
low
housing
inventory
talk
goes
away.
We
made
more
progress
again
this
week
toward
that
goal.  

• Weekly
  inventory
  change
  (April
  11-April
  18):
  Inventory
  rose
  from 702,434
  to
  
  719,400
• The
  same
  week
  last
  year
  (April
  12-April
  19):
  Inventory
  rose
  from 526,479
  to
  
  542,651
• The
  all-time
  inventory
  bottom
  was
  in
  2022
  at
  
  240,497
• The
  inventory
  peak
  for
  2024
  was
  
  739,434
• For
  some
  context,
  active
  listings
  for
  the
  same
  week
  in
  2015
  were
  
  1,060,699

New
listings
data

The
new
listings
data
for
the
past
two
years
hasn’t
been
a
positive
story,
but
it
is
now. Last
year,
I
anticipated
that
a
minimum
of
80,000
homes
would
be
listed
every
week
during
the
peak
seasonal
months,
and
I
was
wrong
—
off
by
5,000.
This
year,
I
am
optimistic
we
would
get
back
to
that
mark.
Notably,
around
70%
to
80%
of
home
sellers
and
buyers
engage
in
the
market,
reflecting
a
constructive
trend
as
we
strive
for
a
more
balanced
market.

Although
this
week
presented
a
slight
slowdown
in
growth
of
new
listings,
we
are
steadily
approaching
the
seasonal
peak
and
I
remain
confident
that
we
will
exceed
80,000
listings
per
week
this
year.

To
give
you
perspective,
during
the

years
of
the
housing
bubble
crash,
new
listings
were
soaring
between
250,000
and
400,000
per
week
for
many
years.
The
growth
in
new
listings
data
is
just
trying
to
return
to
normal,
where
the
seasonal
peaks
range
between
80,000
and
110,000
per
week.
The
national
new
listing
data
for
last
week
over
the
previous
several
years:

• 2025:
  77,004
• 2024:
  68,409
• 2023:
  59,269

Price-cut
percentage

In
a
typical
year,
about
one-third
of
homes
experience
a
price
reduction,
reflecting
the
housing
market’s
ever-changing
nature.
As
inventory
levels
rise
along
with
higher
mortgage
rates,
some
homeowners
are
experiencing
an
increase
in
price
adjustments. 

For
the
remainder
of
2025,
I

confidently
project
a
modest
increase
in

home
prices
of
approximately
1.77%.
At
the
same
time,
this
suggests
another
year
of
negative
real
home
price
growth
—
the
current
availability
of
homes
and
elevated
mortgage
rates
back
this
outlook.
A
significant
shift
in
mortgage
rates
to
around
6%
could
alter
this
trajectory.
My
2024
forecast
of
2.33%
proved
wrong,
as
lower
rates
in
2024
made
my
forecast
too
low.

The
rise
in
price
cuts
this
year
compared
to
last
strongly
reinforces
my
belief
that
my
conservative
growth
price
forecast
for
2025
is
solid
and
well-supported.
Below
are
the
price
cuts
from
previous
weeks
over
the
last
several
years:

• 2025:
  35.5%
• 2024:
  32%
• 2023:
  30%

The
week
ahead:
Will
headlines
trump
economic
data?

This
week,
several
Federal
Reserve
presidents
will
speak,
which
is
likely
to
generate
significant
media
attention.
Additionally,
with
Trump
expressing
interest
in

replacing
Powell,
that
narrative
may
gain
traction.
I’ll
delve
into
this
topic
further
in
the
Monday
episode
of
the

HousingWire
Daily
podcast. 

We’ll
also
see
reports
on
new
and
existing
home
sales
this
week,
and
since
our
weekly
data
is
slightly
ahead
of
these
figures,
I
expect
a
month-to-month
decline
in
existing
home
sales.
Furthermore,
we’ll
have
service
PMI
reports
alongside
the
Michigan
consumer
sentiment
data
on
Friday,
which
has
shown
some
challenges
recently.
It
will
be
interesting
to
see
how
these
indicators
develop.

See
the
whole
archive
of
our
weekly
Housing
Market
Tracker
articles

here.