The
2024
housing
market
is
shaping
out
to
be
one
of
the
slowest
in
recent
memory,
but
what
can
the
industry
expect
in
2025?

HousingWire
Lead
Analyst
Logan
Mohtashami
and

Altos
Research
Founder
Mike
Simonsen
have
compiled
a
comprehensive

forecast
for
the
2025
housing
market.
The
report
offers
hope
that
next
year
will
be
better
than
the
last,
but
only
to
an
extent.

The
pair
project
4.2
million
in

existing
home
sales
in
2025.
This
is
a
5%
increase
over
2024,
which
is
on
pace
for
4
million
transactions,
a
number
that
would
represent
the
fewest
home
sales
since
the
housing
bubble
burst
in
2008.

For
comparison,
annual
home
sales
over
the
last
two
decades
have
averaged
5.15
million,
and
sales
topped
out
at
7
million
in
2005.

Mortgage
rates
are
a
tricky
variable
in
any
forecast,
particularly
at
this
moment
when
the
Federal
Reserve
may
be
slowing
its
roll
on
future
interest
rate
cuts.
HousingWire
assumes
mortgage
rates
will
stay
in
a
range
between
5.75%
and
7.25%.

With
this
assumption
—
in
addition
to
ongoing
affordability
issues
and
low
inventory
—
HousingWire’s
analysts
foresee
home-price
appreciation
of
3.5%,
less
than
the
5%
growth
seen
in
typical
years.
This
forecast
is
higher
than
the
average
for
the
industry.

A
shortage
of
homes
for
sale
has
been
a
prime
impediment
to
the
2024
housing
market,
but
HousingWire
expects
13%
growth
in
inventory,
with
a
peak
in
October
of
800,000
before
finishing
the
year
at
720,000.

This
growth
is
in
line
with
upward
trends
in
inventory
that
began
in
2022,
when
available
homes
for
sale
tanked
to
roughly
250,000.

HousingWire
isn’t
the
only
organization
that’s
made
a
housing
market
forecast
for
2025.

HousingWire’s
2025
forecast
of
3.5%
home-price
growth
is
at
the
higher
end
among
the
13
examined,
which
averaged
2.6%
growth.

National
Association
of
Realtors
(NAR)

Chief
Economist
Lawrence
Yun
projects
a
2%
rise
in
home
prices
in
both
2025
and
2026.

Fannie
Mae
expects
its
home
price
index
to
rise
by
3%.

The
range
for
projections
for
home
sales
is
a
little
tighter
than
for
home
prices.
HousingWire’s
expectation
of
4.2
million
existing
home
sales
is
in
line
with

Goldman
Sachs
(4.2
million)
and
the

Mortgage
Bankers
Association
(4.3
million).
NAR
is
at
the
top
of
the
range
of
other
forecasts
with
a
projection
of
4.9
million
sales.

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