August’s
gain
of
just
142,000
total
nonfarm
payroll

jobs
confirms
that
the
job
market
is
cooling,
which
all
in
all
is
good
news
for
the


Federal
Reserve,
which
meets
in
a
little
under
two
weeks
to

discuss
interest
rates.
But
is
it
enough
to
justify
a
half-point
cut?

Data from
the U.S.
Bureau
of
Labor
Statistics released
on
Friday
also
showed
that
the

June
jobs
report
was
revised
downward
to
118,000
jobs
(from
179,000)
and

July
down
to
89,000
jobs
(from
114,000).

The
unemployment
rate
remained
fairly
steady
month-over-month
coming
in
at
4.2%
with
7.1
million
people
unemployed.
A
year
ago,
the
jobless
rate
was
3.8%
with
6.3
million
people
unemployed.

Mike
Fratantoni,
the
senior
vice
president
and
chief
economist
at
the

Mortgage
Bankers
Association,
said
the
job
gains
in
August
did
little
to
lower
the
unemployment
rate
and
he
expects
the
jobless
rate
to
get
as
high
as
5%
in
the
next
year.

“There
were
job
losses
in
the
manufacturing
sector
(-24,000
jobs)
in
August
but
relatively
modest
job
gains
in
the
services
sector.
This
is
consistent
with
a
cooling
of
demand
or
workers
from
companies
across
the
board,”
Fratantoni
said
in
a
statement.
“The
JOLTS
report
this
week
added
to
this
picture
with
data
showing
an
ongoing
decline
in
job
openings.”

The
majority
of
the
job
gains
occurred
in

construction
(+34,000
jobs),
health
care
(+31,000
jobs),
social
assistance
(+13,000
jobs).

When
broken
out,
residential
building
construction
gained
4,800
jobs
in
August
and
residential
specialty
trade
contractors
gained
800
jobs.
The
largest
gains
were
in
the
heavy
and
civil
engineering
sectors
(+13,500
jobs)
and
the
nonresidential
specialty
trade
contractor
sector
(+14,000
jobs).

The
real
estate
sectors
gained
3,500
jobs
in
August,
while
the
rental
and
leasing
services
sector
gained
2,600
jobs.

Economists
believe
this
report
will
give
the
Fed
the
confidence
it
needs
to
cut
rates
at
their
meeting
later
this
month.

“Federal
Reserve
officials
have
recently
pivoted
from
a
primary
focus
on
inflation
to
a
more
balanced
view,
with
concerns
both
about
inflation
and
employment,”
Fratantoni
said.
“This
report
highlights
that
such
a
pivot
makes
sense, and
that
a
25-basis-point
cut
at
its
September
meeting
is
a
sensible
first
step
at
this
time.”

Kathy
Bostjancic,
chief
economist
at

Nationwide,
agrees
with
Fratantoni,
noting
that
the
numbers
were
“not
likely
enough”
for
the
Fed
to
consider
a
half-point
reduction.

As
of
Friday
morning,
the
market
was
pricing
in
a
50-50
likelihood
of
a
50-basis
point
cut.

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