Looking
farther
out,
however,
the
chances
of
a
rate
cut
are
higher.
Nearly
30%
of
traders
expect
a
cut
at
the
end
of
July,
while
roughly
70%
say
there
will
be
one
by
mid-September.

MBA’s
thoughts

Bob
Broeksmit,
the
president
and
CEO
of
the


Mortgage
Bankers
Association
(MBA),
delivered
prepared
remarks
on
Tuesday
at
the
trade
group’s
Secondary
and
Capital
Markets
Conference
in
New
York
City.
While
Broeksmit
didn’t
speak
directly
to
mortgage
rates,
he
touched
on
regulatory
reforms
under
the

Trump
administration
that
are
expected
to
rein
in
consumer
housing
costs.

“Look
no
further
than

FHA
and

Ginnie
Mae,
where
important
leadership
positions

have
been
filled
by
familiar
faces
who
have
deep
policy
experience
and
industry
knowledge,
including
at
MBA,”
Broeksmit
said.
“And
while
the
next
commissioner
of
FHA
hasn’t
been
announced,
we
expect
that
he
will
be
a
fellow
industry
practitioner. 

“This
is
a
welcome
change.
We’re
now
dealing
with
leaders
who
know
the
importance
of
prudence.
We
have
fewer
worries
of
overregulation
and
policy
proposals
that
hurt
the
industry
and
ultimately
increase
borrower
costs.”

In
its
latest

mortgage
originations
forecast
released
Monday,
the
MBA
also
recognized
the
toll
that
higher
interest
rates,
tariffs
and
consumer
pessimism
are
having
on
prospective
borrowers.

The
MBA
reduced
its
estimate
for
total
origination
volume
in
2025
to
$1.397
trillion,
down
from
$1.406
trillion
in
March.
But
it
added
another
$9
billion
to
its
refinance
forecast
and
expects
that
segment
to
finish
2025
at
$672
billion.

“Nobody’s
feeling
exuberant
about
the
housing
market
or
the
mortgage
market
right
now,
but
it’s
a
little
better
than
these
last
couple
of
years,
which
have
been
truly
very
difficult
for
a
lot
of
our
members,”
MBA
chief
economist

Mike
Fratantoni
said.

Housing
market
metrics

Despite
persistently
high
mortgage
rates
and

home
prices,
there’s
good
news
for
prospective
homebuyers
in
the
form
of
more
inventory.

According
to


Altos,
the
768,000
single-family
homes
for
sale
today

exceeds
pre-pandemic
levels
and
is
up
33%
year
over
year.
New
listings,
including
immediate
sales,
totaled
90,000
this
week,
which
is
8%
above
year-ago
levels.

While
expressing
optimism
about
the
state
of
the
market,
Altos
President
Mike
Simonsen
also
cautioned
that
the
numbers
should
be
taken
in
context.

“This
mid-May
period
is
when
we
typically
see
the
most
sellers
hit
the
market,”
Simonsen
wrote
Monday.
“This
is
it
—
we’re
roughly
at
peak
housing
market
for
2025
right
now.
So
if
you’re
expecting
some
kind
of
oncoming
flood
of
sellers
that
will
tank
home
prices,
it
looks
like
you’ll
have
to
wait
another
year.”

Altos
data
also
shows
that
national
home
prices
are
virtually
unchanged
from
one
year
ago,
with
nine
states
experiencing
flat
prices
or
declines.
These
include
the
previous
Sun
Belt
hotspots
of
Texas,
Florida
and
Georgia,
which
combine
to
represent
35%
of
U.S.
housing
inventory.

Data
released
Tuesday
by

First
American
shows
a
similar
trend.
The
company
reported
that
national
home
prices

rose
2%
during
the
year
ending
in
April,
the
slowest
rate
of
appreciation
since
2012.

“Persistently
high
mortgage
rates
have
tempered
demand,
while
increased
inventory
has
boosted
supply,
dragging
house
price
appreciation
down,”
First
American
Chief
Economist

Mark
Fleming
said
in
a
statement.

“This
normalization
follows
the
unsustainable
price
growth
seen
during
the
pandemic.
Although
affordability
remains
a
challenge,
slower
price
appreciation
is
encouraging
for
potential
home
buyers
as
it
lets
their
income-growth
driven
house
purchasing
power
increase.”

First
American
also
reported
that
some
major
markets,
particularly
those
in
the
Northeast
and
Midwest,
are
seeing
rapid
price
growth
in
the
starter-home
segment
that
is
typically
most
attractive
to

first-time
homebuyers.
These
cities
include
Pittsburgh,
Baltimore
and
St.
Louis,
where
homes
priced
in
the
lowest
tier
saw
appreciation
rates
that
were
double
or
triple
the
national
average
for
the
year
ending
in
April.