New
listings
data

The
seasonal
peak
period
is
in,
and
we
don’t
even
see
the
extra
selling
this
year
that
we
did
in
2022,
which
was
also
a
normal-looking
year.
Here
is
the
new
listings
data
for
this
week
for
the
last
three
years:

• 2024 
  
  70,606
• 2023:
  
  61,749
• 2022:
  
  90,741

Our
pre-listing
data
has
declined
recently,
so
it
doesn’t
look
good
for
my
80K
minimum
peak
call
in
2024.
As
we
can
see,
2023
and
2024
data
look
much
different
than
2022
data
when
home
sales
crashed.

Now,
let’s
look
at
the
new
listings
data
for
several
years
before
COVID-19;
these
are
the
weekly
data
for
this
week.
As
you
can
see
below,
between

80,000
and
100,000
is
the
norm,
and
we
had
some
weeks
in
the
past
decade
when
the
seasonal
peak
was
at

110,000.

• 2015
  
   81,875
• 2016 
  
  80,293 
• 2017 
  
  84,293
• 2018
  
   98,972
• 2019
  
   87,278 

Now,
let
me
show
you
what
stressed
sellers’
data
looks
like.
The
numbers
speak
for
themselves
and
if
anyone
you
know
has
been
saying
housing
looks
like
2008
for
the
past
10
years,
I
will
tell
you
that
the
person
doesn’t
read.

• 2009
   281,734 
• 2010
   
  
  345,146
• 2011
   
  
  396,955
• 2012
   
  
  318,041

Weekly
housing
inventory
data

I
am
almost
ready
to
give
an
A
grade
for
inventory
this
year.
For
the
fifth
time
this
year,
inventory
hit
my
target
level
with
elevated

mortgage
rates.
Getting
6-12
weeks
of
this
is
enough
for
me
to
be
very
happy.
My
rule
of
thumb
has
been
that
inventory
should
have
some
weekly
positive
prints
between

11,000
and

17,000
as
long
as
rates
are
above
7.25%.
Last
week,
we
saw
a
positive
inventory
growth
of

11,638!

• Weekly
  inventory
  change
  (June
  14-June
  21):
  Inventory
  rose
  from
  
   634,132
  to
  
  645,770
• The
  same
  week
  last
  year
  (June
  16-June
  23),
  Inventory
  rose
  from
  
  460,668
  to
  
  466,534
• The
  all-time
  inventory
  bottom
  was
  in
  2022
  at
  
  240,497
• This
  week
  is
  the
  inventory
  peak
  for
  2024
  at
  
  645,770
• For
  some
  context,
  active
  listings
  for
  this
  week
  in
  2015
  were
  
  1,184,616

Price-cut
percentage

In
an
average
year,
one-third
of
all
homes
take
a

price
cut
—
this
is
regular
housing
activity
that
happens
every
year. 
When
mortgage
rates
increase,
demand
falls,
and
the
price-cut
percentage
grows.
When
rates
drop
and
demand
improves,
the
price-cut
percentage
can
fall.

This
data
line
is
seasonal
and
we
have
seen
consistent
year-over-year
price-cut
percentage
growth
since
the
end
of
March.
This
is
much
different
than
what
we
saw
in
2023.
Last
year,
inventory
growth
was
very
slow
and
new
listing
data
was
trending
at
the
lowest
levels
ever.
2024
has
a
much
healthier
inventory
level.

A
few
weeks
ago,
on

the
HousingWire
Daily
podcast,
I
discussed
that
the
price-growth
data
will
cool
down
in
the
second
half
of
the
year.
Here
are
the
price-cut
percentages
for
last
week
over
the
previous
few
years:

• 
  2024:
  38%
• 
  2023:
  32%
• 
  2022:
  31%

Pending
sales

Below
is
our
weekly
pending
contract
data
year-over-year
to
show
real-time
demand.
With
more
sellers
who
are
buyers,
we
have
a
tad
more
demand
this
year.
This
contract
data
will
grow
if
mortgage
rates
head
lower
and
stay
lower.
This
is
why
it’s
vital
to
follow
the
10-year
yield,
mortgage
purchase
apps,and
weekly
pending
contract
data
to
get
real-time
clues
on
demand
well
ahead
of
the
existing
home
sales
reports.

So
far,
our
pending
contract
data
is
still
showing
growth:

• 
  2024:
  397,569
• 
  2023:
  385,084
• 
  2022:
  445,519

10-year
yield
and
mortgage
rates 

Last
week,
the
10-year
yield
didn’t
have
too
much
fireworks,
with
just
back-and-forth
action
in
a
small
channel.
Mortgage
rates
didn’t
move
much,
except
for
what
happened
on
Friday
(explained
below).
Here
is
the
week’s
action
before
Friday:

What
happened
on
Friday?
The
PCE
inflation
data
came
in
slightly
tamer
than
anticipated,
and
bond
yields
fell.
Then,
all
of
a
sudden,
yields
spiked,
and
I
got
a
barrage
of
questions
about
what
was
happening.
Sometimes,
the
end-of-the-quarter
money
flowing
into
bonds
can
create
extreme
moves
up
and
down
on
a
summer
trading
day
on
a
Friday.
Is
their
fund
blowing
up,
and
do
they
need
to
sell
their
bonds?
Maybe.
Is
the
Bank
of
Japan
selling
their
treasuries
to
get
ready
to
defend
their
currency?
I
will
go
with
the
end-of-quarter
trading
as
the
explanation.

Mortgage
spreads

The
spread
between
the
30-year
mortgage
rate
and
the
10-year
yield
has
been
an
issue
since
2022,
and
things
got
worse
after
the
March
2023

banking
crisis.
However,
this
year,
spreads
have
improved.

If
we
took
the
worst
levels
of
the
spreads
from
2023
and
incorporated
those
today,
mortgage
rates
would
be

0.51%
higher.
While
we
are
far
from
being
average
with
the
spreads,
the
fact
that
we
have
seen
this
improvement
is
a
plus
this
year.

Purchase
application
data

Last
week
was
the
third
straight
week
of
gains
in
the

purchase
application
data
—
the
first
real
winning
streak
of
2024.
But,
I
caution
everyone
not
to
get
too
excited
unless
we
have
at
least
a
12-week
positive
trend
going
just
because
we
are
working
from
the
lowest
bar
ever,
so
growth
isn’t
saying
much
unless
it’s
with
duration.
However,
it’s
the
first
positive
streak
we
have
in
the
data
line. 

Since
the
onset
of
falling
mortgage
rates
in

November
2023,
we’ve
seen

15
positive
prints,

13
negative
prints,
and

two
flat
prints
in
the
week-to-week
data.
However,
as
mortgage
rates
began
to
rise
earlier
this
year,
we
observed
a
decline
in
demand.
The
year-to-date
data
for
2024
is
unfavorable,
with

9
positive
prints,

13
negative
prints,
and

two

flat
prints.
This
suggests
that
we’re
not
experiencing
real
mortgage
demand
growth
at
high
rates,
and
the
fluctuations
we
see
in
the
data
are
merely
rebounded
from
low
levels.

The
week
ahead:
Powell,
ISM,
jobs
week
and
fireworks!

This
is
going
to
be
a
crazy
week,
folks.
First,
it’s
jobs
week,
and
the
labor
market
is
very
important
now
for
rates
since
we
have
shown
for
months
that
the
labor
market,
while
not
breaking,
has
been
getting
softer.
We
have
ISM
manufacturing
data
on
Monday
and
we
have
Federal
Reserve
Chairman
Powell
giving
a
speech
on
Tuesday,
when
job
openings
will
also
be
reported.
Thursday
is
July
the
4th
and
then
Jobs
Friday!
This
might
be
the
craziest
week
of
the
year
so
far,
so
buckle
up
and
get
ready
for
some
economic
bond-trading
fireworks.