The
downward
movement
in
mortgage
rates
over
the
past
few
months
accelerated
last
week
as
a

cooler-than-expected
jobs
report
and
indications
of
a


Federal
Reserve
rate
cut
led
to
a
steep
drop
in
loan
pricing.

At


HousingWire‘s
Mortgage
Rates
Center
on
Tuesday,
the
30-year
conventional
loan
rate
averaged
6.8%
—
a
new
low
point
for
2024
that
was
just
below
the
6.83%
figure
to
start
the
year.
Rates
have
been
above
7%
for
much
of
the
past
six
months,
contributing
to
a
tepid
spring
and
summer
of

home
sales,
but
they
have
steadily
decreased
since
peaking
above
7.5%
in
early
May.

Depending
on
the
loan
scenario,
originators
across
the
country
are

offering
even
lower
prices
to
borrowers.
HousingWire
interviewed
several
mortgage
professionals
early
this
week
who
said
that
rates
for
government
loans
were
in
the
high
5%
to
low
6%
range,
while
those
for
conventional
mortgages
were
in
the
low-to-mid-6s.
Quotes
vary
based
on
borrower
credit
scores,
lender
points
and
other
factors.

On
Monday,

turmoil
for
international
stock
markets
were
received
as
good
news
for
the
U.S.
housing
and
mortgage
markets,
even
as
stock
prices
for
some
major
real
estate
and
mortgage
companies

took
a
hit. Bank
of
America projected
more
than
100
basis
points
(bps)
of
rate
cuts
before
the
end
of
the
year
as
the
risk
of
a
recession
appears
to
be
rising.

The
recent
decline
in
rates
—
and
expectations
for
more
—
are
fueling
optimism
for
a
potential
renaissance
in
home
purchase
and
refinance
lending.
At

United
Wholesale
Mortgage,
for
example,
CEO
Mat
Ishbia

said
Tuesday
that
the
company
is
selling
some
of
its
mortgage
servicing
rights
with
higher
coupon
rates
as
it
looks
to
deleverage
its
balance
sheet
and
invest
in
origination
opportunities.

The


CME
Group‘s
FedWatch
tool
currently
shows
a
100%
chance
of
a
rate
cut
following
next
month’s
Fed
meeting.
Sixty-three
percent
of
analysts
believe
there
will
be
a
cut
of
50
bps,
with
37%
expecting
a
cut
of
25
bps.
The
federal
funds
rate
has
not
moved
from
its
current
range
of
5.25%
to
5.5%

since
July
2023.

Other
market
observers
cautioned
that
even
though
a
Fed
rate
cut
in
September
seems
all
but
certain,
mortgage
rates
don’t
always
move
in
tandem
with
changes
in
the
federal
funds
rate.

“Mortgage
rates
aren’t
going
to
change
based
on
a
Fed
cut,“
Melissa
Cohn,
a
regional
vice
president
at

William
Raveis
Mortgage,
said
in
a
statement.
“Your

home
equity
rate
will
drop.
Your
student
loans,
car
loans,
all
those
rates
will
drop
every
time
the
Fed
cuts
rates,
but
mortgage
rates
are
tied
to
the
bond
market,
and
the
bond
market
is
more
affiliated
with
the
rate
of

inflation
and
bad
economic
data
than
it
is
to
the
Fed
funds
rate.”

In

commentary
published
Monday,

Moody’s
analyst
Nick
Villa
wrote
that
a
September
rate
cut
will
not
be
enough
to
“relieve
the
housing
affordability
crisis.“

“Presumably,
even
with
the
first
interest
rate
cut
of
this
hiking
cycle
in
September,
the
federal
funds
rate
would
still
be
in
restrictive
territory
with
additional
cuts
needed
to
help
restore
the
housing
market
to
a
more
balanced
equilibrium,“
Villa
said. 

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