Persistent
economic
trends
that
include
inflation,
a
strong
labor
market
and
real
gross
domestic
product
(GDP)
growth
will
continue
to
“dampen”
mortgage
origination
activity
through
at
least
the
end
of
2026,
according
to
the
newest
U.S.
mortgage
originations
outlook
from
financial
services
forecasting
and
advisory
company


iEmergent.

Based
on
2023

Home
Mortgage
Disclosure
Act
(HMDA)
data,
the
iEmergent

analysis
predicts
that
purchase
mortgage
volume
will
rise
by
roughly
9%
in
2024
compared
to
last
year.
But
this
will
primarily
be
driven
by
larger
loan
amounts
rather
than
a
larger
number
of
originations.
Meanwhile,
refinance
transactions
are
expected
to
increase
modestly
to
18%
of
all
originations,
up
slightly
from
a
record-low
share
of
17%
in
2023.

In
terms
of
dollar
volume,
total
mortgage
originations
in
2023
finished
at
$1.443
trillion,
with
$1.567
trillion
anticipated
by
the
end
of
2024.
Of
that
total,
$252
billion
is
expected
to
come
from
refinances.

A
“mild
decline”
in
GDP
growth
in
2025
could
lead
to
a
softening
of
both

mortgage
rates
and
home
prices,
leading
to
slightly
higher
origination
levels
and
growth
in
refinance
transactions
that
is
tempered
by
recent
historic
lows.
iEmergent
forecasts
2025
originations
to
be
at
$1.761
trillion,
with
$370
billion
(or
21%)
of
the
total
coming
from
refinances.

It
is
not
until
2026
that
the
firm
predicts
mortgage
origination
volume
will
approach
2022
levels,
as
moderating
rates
are
expected
to
fuel
additional
recovery
of
refinance
volume
in
terms
of
originations
and
dollar
amounts.
The
forecast
for
2026
currently
stands
at
$2.014
trillion,
with
26.7%
(or
$538
billion)
expected
to
come
from
refinances.

“The
American
economy
has
proven
surprisingly
resilient,
and
that
very
resiliency
has
kept
interest
rates
higher
than
anticipated
for
longer
than
expected,”
iEmergent
CEO
Laird
Nossuli
said
in
the
report.
“When
you
factor
in
an
affordability
crisis
and
an
acute
housing
shortage,
it’s
no
wonder
origination
volumes
continue
to
suffer.

“As
economic
growth
slows
over
the
next
couple
of
years,
we
could
finally
see
some
improvement,
provided
inventory
scarcity
is
addressed.
As
markets
recover,
origination
opportunities
will
be
unevenly
distributed,
making
our
census-level
forecasts
a
critical
tool
for
shaping
lenders’
growth
strategies.”

iEmergent’s
forecasts
through
2026
are
more
conservative
than
those
of
the


Mortgage
Bankers
Association
(MBA).
According
to

MBA’s
most
recent
forecast
from
May
16,
the
association
predicts
$1.805
trillion
in
originations
for
2024,
followed
by
$2.084
trillion
in
2025
and
$2.275
trillion
in
2026.
The
refi
share
is
predicted
to
be
23.3%
($422
million)
in
2024,
28%
($585
million)
in
2025
and
28.4%
($646
million)
in
2026.

iEmergent’s
forecasts
are
also
more
conservative
than
those
of


Fannie
Mae,
which
predicts
volume
to
be

broadly
in
line
with
MBA’s
forecasts
for
this
year
—
roughly
$1.4
trillion
in
purchase
volume
and
$368
million
in
refinance
volume.
In
2025,
Fannie
Mae
predicts
13%
growth
in
purchase
volume
for
a
total
volume
of
$1.939
trillion,
with
34%
of
that
volume
($539
billion)
being
refinances.

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