Refinance demand is up, but most borrowers lack incentive
Mortgage
rates
have
declined
for
six
straight
weeks,
pushing
loan
application
volume
up
1.4%
during
the
week
ending
Sept.
6,
according
to
the
Mortgage
Bankers
Association
(MBA).
The
MBA’s
survey
—
which
covers
75%
of
all
retail
residential
mortgage
applications
in
the
U.S.
—
found
that
the
seasonally
adjusted
refinance
index
increased
1%
from
the
previous
week
and
was
106%
higher
than
the
same
week
a
year
ago.
The
seasonally
adjusted
purchase
index
increased
2%
from
a
week
earlier.
“Mortgage
rates
declined
for
the
sixth
consecutive
week,
with
the
30-year
fixed
rate
decreasing
to
6.29%,
the
lowest
rate
since
February
2023,”
Joel
Kan,
MBA’s
vice
president
and
deputy
chief
economist,
said
in
a
statement.
“Treasury
yields
have
been
responding
to
data
showing
a
picture
of
cooling
inflation,
a
slowing
job
market
and
the
anticipated
first
rate
cut
from
the
Federal
Reserve
later
this
month.
With
rates
almost
a
full
percentage
point
lower
than
a
year
ago,
refinance
applications
continue
to
run
much
higher
than
last
year’s
pace.”
But
the
refi
market
isn’t
expected
to
get
much
bigger
as
76.1%
of
homeowners
have
a
mortgage
with
a
rate
below
5%,
according
to
a
recent
Redfin
analysis.
“There
is
still
somewhat
limited
refinance
potential
as
many
borrowers
still
have
sub-5%
rates.
It
is
a
positive
development
that
there
are
homeowners
who
can
benefit
from
a
refinance
as
rates
continue
to
move
lower,”
Kan
said.
The
average
30-year
fixed-rate
conforming
mortgage
dropped
to
6.45%
on
Wednesday,
down
from
6.58%
a
week
ago,
according
to
HousingWire’s
Mortgage
Rates
Center.
The
MBA’s
survey
showed
that
the
average
contract
interest
rate
for
30-year
fixed-rate
conforming
loans
(balances
of
$766,550
or
less)
decreased
to
6.29%
last
week,
down
14
basis
points
(bps)
from
the
previous
week.
The
average
rate
for
jumbo
loans
(balances
above
$766,550)
fell
17
bps
to
6.56%.
Inflation
reached
a
three-year
low
of
2.5%
in
August,
paving
the
way
for
the
Fed
to
cut
interest
rates
for
the
first
time
since
early
2020.
The
CME
Group‘s
FedWatch
tool
on
Wednesday
showed
that
interest
rate
traders
are
heavily
leaning
toward
the
Fed
making
a
smaller
cut,
with
87%
predicting
a
25-bps
decrease
at
next
week’s
Federal
Open
Market
Committee
(FOMC)
meeting.
The
refi
share
of
mortgage
activity
was
46.7%
last
week,
up
marginally
from
46.4%
during
the
previous
week.
The
Federal
Housing
Administration
(FHA)
share
of
total
applications
rose
slightly
to
14.7%
from
during
the
period.
The
U.S.
Department
of
Veterans
Affairs
(VA)
share
decreased
to
16.4%
and
the
U.S.
Department
of
Agriculture
(USDA)
share
remained
unchanged
at
0.4%.
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