Housing
markets
across
the
country
have
stalled
due
to
elevated

mortgage
rates
and
limited

for-sale
inventory,
but
some
counties
are
at
risk
of
a
more
dramatic
downturn.

That’s
according
to
a
report
released
Thursday
by


Attom,
which
concluded
that
areas
around
New
York
City,
Chicago
and
inland
California
are
most
at
risk
of
a
housing
downturn,
while
areas
in
the
South
and
Midwest
are
less
vulnerable.

“The
housing
market
boom
continues
to
gain
momentum,
thanks
to
another
[seasonal]
boost,”
Attom
CEO
Rob
Barber
said
in
a
statement.
“However,
some
markets
show
signs
of
potential
instability,
which
suggests
a
mixed
level
of
risk,
particularly
in
certain
regions
that
repeatedly
show
signs
of
concern.

“While
these
observations
don’t
indicate
immediate
red
flags
or
warning
signs
of
an
impending
downturn,
they
do
highlight
areas
of
relative
risk.”

Attom’s
quarterly
report
analyzes
county-level
data
on
affordability,

underwater
mortgages,

foreclosures
and
unemployment
to
determine
which
counties
and
metro
areas
are
vulnerable
to
a
downturn.
The
second-quarter
2024
report
looked
at
589
counties.

Seven
counties
in
the
New
York
City
area,
five
in
Chicago
and
12
in
inland
California
topped
the
list.
These
same
areas,
by
and
large,
have
led
the
nation
in
downturn
risk
over
the
past
five
years.
At
the
other
end
of
the
spectrum,
metros
that
posed
the
lowest
risks
included
Washington,
D.C.;
Richmond,
Virginia;
and
Nashville.

Different
factors
impact
downturn
risk
in
different
counties.
Homeownership
costs
like
mortgage
payments,
property
taxes
and
insurance
were
compared
to
local
income
levels.
The
counties
that
fared
the
worst
on
these
metrics
were
Brooklyn,
New
York;
Riverside,
California;
Washington
County,
Utah;
Staten
Island,
New
York;
and
Passaic
County,
New
York.

The
counties
with
the
highest
rates
of
underwater
mortgages
are
Tangipahoa
Parish,
Louisiana;
Peoria
County,
Illinois;
Lake
County,
Indiana;
New
Orleans;
and
Montgomery
County,
Ohio.

The
counties
with
the
highest
foreclosure
rates
are
Charlotte
County,
Florida;
Cumberland
County,
New
Jersey;
Sussex
County,
New
Jersey;
Dorchester
County,
South
Carolina;
and
Gregg
County,
Texas.

Unemployment
also
factors
into
Attom’s
study,
and
most
of
the
at-risk
markets
in
this
category
are
in
California.

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