What
will
the

housing
market
look
like
in
2025?
We
already
see
many
signals
for
what
to
expect,
including
last
week’s
data
on

inventory,
new
listings
and
price
reductions,
which
I
analyze
below.
For
a
more
comprehensive
look,
read
our

2025
Housing
Market
Forecast
covering
home
prices,
home
sales
volumes
and
more.

Last
week,
there
were
9%
more
newly
pending
home
sales
than
the
same
week
a
year
ago
and
home
sales
are
ticking
down
for
the
season.

Mortgage
rates
continue
to
move
higher
and
that’s
impacting
buyers.

Housing
inventory 

There
are
now
722,000
unsold
single-family
homes
on
the
market
around
the
U.S.
That’s
a
tiny
bit
more
than
a
week
ago
and
almost
27%
more
inventory
than
last
year
at
this
time.
Inventory
peaked
for
this
year
back
in
October
and
in
most
of
the
country
the
number
of
unsold
homes
on
the
market
is
moving
lower
for
the
season.

Below
is
the
10-year
view
of
inventory
trends
in
the
U.S.
You
can
see
the
recovery
of
inventory
over
the
past
three
years
and
that
we
probably
still
have
a
few
more
years
before
we
fully
recover
to
the
levels
that
we
had
in
the
last
decade.
It
took
just
two
years
of

ultra-low
interest
rates
to
eat
up
all
the
unsold
inventory
and
will
probably
take
five
years
for
it
to
rebuild. 

One
of
the
conclusions
of

our
forecast
is
that
we’ll
see
inventory
growth
in
2025
again,
with
about
17%
more
homes
on
the
market
by
the
end
of
next
year.

New
listings

One
way
reason
it
will
be
hard
for
inventory
to
grow
more
than
17%
next
year
is
that
there
are
still
not
enough
sellers
to
get
there.
Last
week
there
were
52,000
new
listings
for
single-family
homes
unsold.
That’s
6%
more
than
the
week
before
and
nearly
7%
more
than
a
year
ago.
When
we
add
back
in
another
7,500
new
listings
with
immediate
sales
—
those
are
already
in
contract
and
not
added
to
the
active
inventory
—
overall
that’s
just
3%
more
sellers
than
a
year
ago.

Frankly,
it
feels
like
the
housing
market
is
contracting
a
bit
now
in
November.
After
the

hurricanes,
we
got
hit
with
spiking
mortgage
rates
and
then

the
election.
We
saw
a
little
rebound
in
the
new
listings
rate
after
the
election,
but
it
was
actually
less
of
a
rebound
than
I
anticipated.
A
few
more
sellers
emerged,
but
my
gut
says
that
many
are
done
for
the
season
and
maybe
will
try
again
next
spring.

Home
sales

We
counted
53,000
new
contracts
pending
for
single-family
homes
last
week,
with
another
11,000
condo
sales.
That’s
a
bounce
up
of
almost
3%
for
the
week
after
the
election
pause.

The
recent
average
weekly
single-family
home
sales
is
down
to
56,000
newly
pending
single-family
home
sales
per
week.
Home
sales
are
averaging
almost
10%
more
than
last
year
but
October
of
2023
was
really
weak
for
transaction
volume.

We
are
still
forecasting
slight
growth
overall
in
home
sales
in
2025
—
probably
just
5%
more
than
in
2024.
In
the
chart
below,
I’ve
used
a
four-week
rolling
average
of
home
sales
to
smooth
out
the
weekly
noise,
but
you
can
see
that
sales
are
running
just
a
bit
ahead
of
last
year.
There’s
not
a
ton
of
growth
here:
52,000
new
listings
in
a
week
and
53,000
sales.

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