Available
inventory
of
homes
for
sale
has
been
climbing
for
four
years.
Overall
there
are
9%
more
homes
on
the
market
now
compared
to
last
year
at
this
time.
We
see
headlines
that
announce
there
are
dramatically
more
sellers
than
buyers.
Some
pundits
have
even
written
that
there
are
so
many
homes
for
sale,
we
can
declare
that
there
is
in
fact
no
shortage
of
homes
anymore.

While
those
statements
may
be
true
in
Dallas,
you
wouldn’t
know
it
if
you’re
a
home
buyer
in
Chicago
or
Connecticut.
Those
markets
have
nearly
70%
fewer
homes
for
sale
now
than
in
2019.
Seventy
percent!
Despite
social
media
messages
to
the
contrary,
the
inventory
shortage
crisis
is
clearly
in
full
force
in
much
of
the
country.

Available
inventory
of
homes
for
sale
in
Texas
has
indeed
skyrocketed
roughly
400%
since
the
pandemic
lows.
At
the
same
time,
inventory
in
most
of
the

Midwest
and
Northeast
has
increased
barely
at
all.
The
challenges
in
these
housing
markets
sound
exactly
like
pandemic
frenzy:
Too
many
buyers,
not
enough
sellers.
Multiple
offers.
Bidding
wars.
“We
desperately
need
more
listings,”
a
Boston-area
agent
told
me
last
week
when
I
was
there.

Take
a
look
at
this
map
of
inventory
changes
at
the
state
level
compared
to
2019.
The
end
of
the
last
decade
was
maybe
the
last
“normal”
housing
market
we
had,
so
it’s
a
useful
reference
for
comparison
now.
The
bluer
the
states
in
the
map,
the
more

inventory
on
the
market
now
than
in
2019.
The
orange
states
have
less.

Thirty-six
states
still
have
less
available
inventory
than
in
2019.
The
country
as
a
whole
has
15%
fewer
homes
for
sale
than
in
2019.
Every
time
I
look
at
this
map
I
am
shocked
at
how
lopsided
the
market
is.

Why
is
inventory
growth
so
lopsided?

The
great
stay

To
get
a
glimpse,
let’s
zero
in
on

Chicago
as
an
example.
Chicago
is
an
economic
draw
from
around
the
Midwest.
When
you
graduate
college
in
Bloomington
or
Ann
Arbor,
you
often
find
your
way
to
Chicago.
At
the
same
time,
for
many
years,
long-term
Chicagoans
have
sought
the
warmer
weather
and
newer
infrastructure
of
the
Sun
Belt.
For
many
years,
net
migration
from
Chicago, inbound
movers
minus
outbound,
has
been
negative.
More
people
have
been
moving
out
of
the
region
than
in.

For
the
real
estate
market,
that
meant
there
were
plenty
of
home
sellers,
a
robust
resale
market
and
relatively
stable
affordability.

But
in
the
last
few
years,
that
migration
pattern
has
changed.
Using
data
from

Censai
Analytics
we
can
see
dramatic
changes
in
net
outflow
and
inflow.
Q2
2025
showed
the
first
net
inbound
migration
period
for
the
region
in
many
years.

Note
that
this
isn’t
Chicago’s
magnetic
force
suddenly
amplifying.
This
is
an
illustration
of
the
phenomenon
I’ve
called

“The
Great
Stay.”
There
are
fewer
people
leaving.
There
are
also
fewer
people
moving
in.

This
isn’t
just
a
Chicago
phenomenon.
This
migration
pattern
is
common
across
all
the
low-inventory
markets
in
the
Midwest
and
Northeast.
It’s
true,
to
a
lesser
extent,
in
California.
That
state
has
had
net
outbound
migration
for
many
years.
During
the
pandemic
that
outflow
accelerated.
Now
it
has
slowed.
As
a
result,
the
states
which
get
a
lot
of
migration
from
California
—
places
like
Denver,
Austin,
Boise
and
even
Nashville
—
have
ample
inventory,
while
Los
Angeles
has
35%
fewer
homes
for
sale
now
than
in
2019.

When
does
the
pattern
change?

When
does
migration
resume
and
balance
out
this
inventory
crisis?
I’m
looking
at
two
factors.

The
first
is

affordability.
A
few
years
in
this
dynamic
mean
that
home
prices
in
inventory-starved
markets
push
higher,
while
relative
bargains
develop
in
those
Sun
Belt
markets
with
a
lot
of
inventory.
Eventually,
that
price
gap
becomes
wide
enough
to
justify
the
move.
When
it
does,
sellers
in
the
Midwest
and
Northeast
will
re-enter
the
market,
listings
will
rise
and
some
equilibrium
will
return.

But
this
isn’t
just
a
price
problem.
We’re
also
worried
about
our
jobs.
The
hiring
rate
is
really
slow. 
If
you
looked
only
at
the
current
hiring
rate
at
3.2%,
you’d
conclude
the
country
was
in
a
deep
recession,
even
though
unemployment
is
still
relatively
low.
Since
companies
aren’t
hiring,
we’re
not
moving
for
new
jobs.
We’re
not
moving
across
the
country.
We’re
afraid
to
leave
our
job
in
Chicago
or
New
Jersey
for
something
new
in
Dallas
or
Orlando. 

That’s
the
second
unlock:
the
labor
market.
Historically,
job
mobility
has
been
one
of
the
most
powerful
drivers
of
housing
turnover.
People
move
because
they
get
a
better
offer
somewhere
else.
They
take
a
promotion.
They
relocate
for
a
new
chapter.
When
hiring
finally
accelerates
again,
that
friction
in
the
housing
market
will
begin
to
dissolve.
Sellers
will
have
the
confidence
of
a
new
paycheck
waiting
for
them
on
the
other
side
of
a
move.
Buyers
will
have
a
clear
financial
reason
to
uproot.

Until
then,
we’re
in
a
holding
pattern.
Not
frozen,
exactly,
but
deeply
stuck.
The
stuckness
means
fewer
homes
are
for
sale
in
the
parts
of
the
country
that
in
recent
times
have
had
net
outbound
migration.
The
national
headline
numbers
obscure
more
than
they
reveal.
A
9%
year-over-year
inventory
increase
sounds
like
meaningful
progress.
But
for
the
buyer
in
suburban
Hartford
or
the
first-timer
trying
to
break
into
the
Chicagoland
market,
that
statistic
isn’t
any
help.

The
map
tells
the
real
story.
It’s
a
deep
imbalance
of
crisis
shortage
and
ample
supply.
Until
Americans
start
moving
again,
for
jobs,
for
affordability,
or
simply
for
the
next
chapter,
balance
is
going
to
be
hard
to
find.