More homeowners might be ready to sell despite the lock-in effect: Redfin

By Housing News

Despite
the
still-challenging
rate
environment,
some
homeowners
might
opt
to
bite
the
bullet
and
give
up
their
low
rate
to
move,
according
to
a

Redfin

study.   

Nationwide,
the
share
of
homeowners
with
relatively
low
rates
has
fallen
modestly
from
a
record
high
of
92.8%
in
mid-2022.
In
the
third
quarter
of
2023,
88.5%
of
U.S.
homeowners
with
mortgages
had
an
interest
rate
below
6%.

To
conduct
this

study
,
Redfin
analyzed
data
from
the

Federal
Housing
Finance
Agency
’s
National
Mortgage
Database
as
of
the
third
quarter
of
2023. 

Many

homeowners

choose
to
sell
because
of
major
life
events,
such
as
a
marriage,
a
new
child,
a
new
job,
or
a
divorce.
Others
simply
want
to
move
to
a
different
house
or
city.
Another
reason
explaining
why
the
share
of
homeowners
with
relatively
low

rates

has
dipped
is
that
some
homeowners
have
a
rate
above
6%.
For
repeat
buyers
and
first-time
buyers
who
entered
the
market
in
2022,
the
average
mortgage
rate
was
above
6%.
As
rates
are
currently
declining,
it
makes
sense
for
them
to
get
a
new
mortgage.


The
lock-in
effect
is
still
real
but
listings
are
starting
to
tick
up

Declining
mortgage
rates
appear
to
have
helped
the

inventory

situation
somewhat.
The

30-year
fixed-rate
mortgage

averaged
6.66%
as
of
Jan.
11,
down
from
a
peak
of
roughly
8%
in
October. 

“Sellers
have
started
coming
out
of
the
woodwork
because
that’s
typical
for
January
and
because
mortgage
rates
have
dropped,”
David
Palmer,
a
Redfin
Premier
real
estate
agent
in
Seattle,
said
in
a
statement.
“They’re
also
coming
to
terms
with
the
fact
that
rates
aren’t
going
back
down
to
3%
any
time
soon,
which
makes
it
easier
to
pull
the
trigger
on
selling.
But
a
lot
of
sellers
are
worried
about
finding
their
next
house
because
even
though
listings
are
rising,
there’s
still
a
housing
shortage.
That’s
part
of
the
reason
so
many
sellers
remain
on
the
sidelines.”

Of
course,
there’s
a
group
of
homeowners
who
are
sitting
on
enough

equity

to
justify
selling
their
home
and
taking
a
higher
mortgage.
As
prices
soared
during
the
pandemic,
many
homeowners
made
a
big
profit
on
their
purchase.
Taking
a
new
mortgage
now
can
make
even
more
sense
if
the
homeowners
wish
to
downsize
or
move
to
a
more
affordable
area.
As
of
the
third
quarter
of
2023,
88.5%
of
mortgaged
U.S.
homeowners
have
a
rate
below
6%,
78.7%
below
5%,
59.4%
below
4%,
and
22.6%
below
3%.


Affordability
remains
an
issue
even
if
mortgage
rates
started
to
trend
down

For
the
four
weeks
ending
January
7,
2023,
the
monthly
payment
on
a
median-priced
U.S.
home
with
an
average
mortgage
rate
of
6.62%
cost
$2,399.
While
that
figure
is
down
$325
from
the
all-time
high
in
2022,
it’s
still
up
7.4%
from
a
year
ago.
Overall,
both
mortgage
rates
and
home
prices
are
higher
than
they
were
last
year.

 

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