After an epic rise in housing starts and permits from the COVID-19 lows, the latest Census report shows a calm after the housing storm. This report is consistent with my prediction that all housing data will moderate from the epic run-up in activity in the second half of 2020.

This moderation means that 2021 will likely have slightly more total home sales than 2020, but not gangbusters. For me, that is completely fine; as I have stated many times, if total home sales close above 6.2 million in each of the years from 2020-2024, then you should view that as a beat. Housing has limits to what it can do demand-wise.

From the Census report:

“Privately‐owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,643,000. This is 6.3 percent (±11.5 percent)* above the revised May estimate of 1,546,000 and is 29.1 percent (±11.2 percent) above the June 2020 rate of 1,273,000.  Single‐family housing starts in June were at a rate of 1,160,000; this is 6.3 percent (±11.7 percent)* above the revised May figure of 1,091,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 474,000.”