Signs point to more inventory this spring: Altos

By BrokerOwner.net January 16, 2024 Housing News

<br />

The
U.S.

real
estate
housing
market
signals
have
been
gradually
building
for
a
couple
of
months.
Home
sellers
are
starting
to
ease
back
into
the
market,
new
listings
are
finally
exceeding
the
levels
of
a
year
ago.
As
a
result,
we’re
starting
to
see
slightly
more
available
supply
of
homes
on
the
market.
This
is
an
expansion
of
the
market
from
incredibly
restricted
levels
last
year.
It’s
a
positive
development.

The
longer
we
stay
with

mortgage
rates
higher,
the
more
inventory
will
build
closer
to
where
it
used
to
be.
Each
year
we’ll
have
5
million
more
people
who
don’t
have
crazy
low
rates
that
they
want
to
hold
onto
forever.
Mortgage
rates
are
higher
than
they
were
a
year
ago.
Higher
than
they
were
a
month
ago.
Higher
mortgage
rates
means
more
inventory.

If
mortgage
rates
fall
into
the
5s
this
spring,
you
should
expect
the
available

inventory
to
decline
as
demand
picks
up
rapidly.
But
as
of
now,
rates
are
holding
in
the
upper
6s
and
inventory
is
building
slowly.

It
is
important
to
keep
in
mind
that
home
sales
are
climbing
with
inventory.
As
supply
comes
to
the
market,
that’s
lifting
one
of
the
restrictions
that
kept
the
home
sales
so
low
last
year.
The
number
of
homes
for
sale
and
the
number
that
are
being
sold
are
both
climbing
into
2024
over
last
year.

Inventory
ticked
up

There
are
just
over
505,000
single
family
homes
on
the
market
across
the
U.S.
That’s
a
1.2%
increase
over
last
week
and
nearly
7%
more
than
last
year
at
this
time.
Inventory
ticked
up
this
week.
This
week
the
supply
of
active
inventory
gained
over
6000
homes.
That
would
have
been
a
big
week
any
time
last
year.

These
are
the
signals
that
point
to
growing
inventory
of
homes
on
the
market
all
spring. Even
if
inventory
ticks
down
next
week,
it
looks
like
that
will
be
a
smaller
move
down
than
last
year,
so
the
year-over-year
percentage
gain
will
continue
to
widen.

Slightly
more
sellers

Inventory
is
building
now
because
we
have
slightly
more
sellers
each
week.
The
market
had
about
49,000
new
listings
this
week.
9,000
of
those
are
already
in
contract.
Leaving
40,000
New
listings
to
add
to
the
market
which
is
about
a
5%
increase
versus
last
year.

It
sure
looks
now
like
we’ll
have
more
sellers
each
week
all
year
long
than
we
did
in
2023.

The
other
side
of
the
equation
to
keep
watch
is
the
purchase
side.
I’ve
called
this
a
supply
constrained
market.
So
as
the
inventory
shortage
eases
just
a
bit,
we
should
also
see
more
transactions
happening.
And
sure
enough,
that’s
what
we’re
seeing.
There
continues
to
be
more
new
contracts
each
week
than
last
year
at
this
same
time.
The
pace
of
home
sales
is
growing.
It’s
not
a
boom.
but
the
market
is
growing.

Price
cuts
stable

Let’s
move
on
to
the

price
signals.
Remember
that
in
2023,
even
though
we
had
very
few
home
sales,
home
prices
inched
up
a
bit
nationwide.
We’re
looking
at
similar
dynamics
for
2024.

Price
reductions
continue
to
decline
with
the
new
inventory
after
the
first
of
the
year. Some
32.2%
of
the
homes
on
the
market
have
had
a
price
reduction.
That’s
right
in
the
middle
of
the
normal
range.
This
implies
slight
home
price
strength
in
general
for
the
next
few
months. If
rates
fall
from
here
into
the
5s,
watch
demand
pick
up
and
we’ll
immediately
see
fewer
sellers
need
to
cut
their
prices.

The
median
price
of
single-family
homes
is
just
a
hair
under
$420,000.
Home
prices
ticked
up
almost
half
a
percent
this
week.
And
the
median
price
of
single-family
homes
right
now
is
3%
higher
than
last
year
at
this
time.
In
this
market
where
supply
and
demand
is
pretty
balanced,
home
prices
are
not
going
to
skyrocket
of
course
and
there
is
no
sign
of
prices
dropping
either.
As
inventory
grows,
and
sales
rates
grow,
home
prices
are
reliably
ticking
up
each
week
as
well.
That
trend
hasn’t
changed.