The Texas-sized problem with housing inventory figures

By Housing News

More
than
556,000
single-family
homes
were
available
for
sale
nationwide
as
of
last
Friday,
according
to
the

latest
data

from
HousingWire
sister
company
Altos
Research.
That
puts
the
national
inventory
up
31.9%
year-over-year,
extending
a
24-week
streak
of
year-over-year
increases.

So
are
agents
and
brokers
flush
with
home
listings?
Likely
not,
as
listings
are
still
a
fraction
of
their
pre-Covid
levels
despite
the
strong
year-over-year
growth.

Brokers
and
agents
,

mortgage
officers

and
other
housing
professionals
continue
to
compete
for
their
share
of
tight
volumes
and
would
need
major
industry
growth
to
get
back
to
2019
levels.

But
there
is
another
reason
national
listings
growth
isn’t
a
boon
to
all
housing
professionals:
the
growth
is
highly
concentrated
in
just
Texas
and
Florida.

In
the
plot
below,
all
states
except
Texas,
Florida
and
California
fall
within
each
month’s
box-and-whisker
plot.
The
boxes
represent
the
middle
50%
of
the
data,
and
the
“whiskers”
represent
data
that
are
close
enough
to
this
middle
50%
not
to
be
considered
outliers.

Texas,
Florida
and
California
are
outside
of
this
range

Texas
and
Florida
especially
so.

This
shows
how
big
of
an
impact
Texas
and
Florida
have
on
the
national
housing
figures.
That
is
not
necessarily
surprising;
they
are
two
of
the
most
populous
states
in
the
country,
after
all.

But
listings
in
Texas
and
Florida
have
been
growing
faster
than
most
other
states,
magnifying
their
impact
even
more.
Texas,
for
example,
went
from
being
about
10%
of
national
listings
in
May
2019
to
about
17%
at
present.

That
complicates
any
takeaways
one
might
glean
from
the
national
figures
alone.
Because
of
their
heft
and
fast
growth,
Texas
and
Florida
are
making
national
listing
growth
appear
rosier
than
it
otherwise
would.
The
national
figure,
meanwhile,
massively
understates
the
experiences
of
Texas
and
Florida.

Even
looking
at
the
state
level
may
obscure
particularities
of
the
markets
within
them.
Dallas,
for
example,
did
not
experience
the
bounce-back
in
listings
last
year
that
the
rest
of
Texas
did,
according
to


CoreLogic

MLS
data

shared
exclusively
with
HousingWire.
Similarly,

Jacksonville
underperformed

the
listings
recovery
that
the
rest
of
Florida
experienced.

The
state-level
picture
is
clearer
in
the
map
below.
Inventories
shrank
universally
nationwide
through
the
second
quarter
of
2021
and
began
to
recover
through
the
second
quarter
of
2023,
but
so
far
in
2024,
Texas
and
Florida
have
dominated
listings
growth.

Although
the
rest
of
the
country
is
not
experiencing
the
same
growth
as
Texas
and
Florida,
most
states
are
seeing

some

growth.
All
but
Nevada
and
New
York
are
up
year-over-year,
and
all
but
six
states
are
up
week-over-week.

 

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