Weekly
housing
inventory
data

Now
that
we
are
right
in
the
middle
of
the
spring
buying
season,
my
inventory
model
is
simple:
with
higher
mortgage
rates,
just
like
last
year,
we
should
be
able
to
grow
weekly
active
inventory
between

11,000
–
17,000
on
some
weeks.
Unfortunately,
I
batted
a
whopping
zero
last
year
since
inventory
growth
never
hit
that
level
for
even
one
week
—
even
when

mortgage
rates
hit
8%.
This
model
was
based
on
rates
over

7.25%,
which
is
my
peak
rate
forecast.
 

• Weekly
  inventory
  change
  (March
  22-29):
  Inventory
  rose
  from 512,759
  to
  
  517,355
• The
  same
  week
  last
  year
  (March
  23-30):
  Inventory
  fell
  from
  
  413,883
  to
  
  410,734
• The
  all-time
  inventory
  bottom
  was
  in
  2022
  at
  
  240,194
• The
  inventory
  peak
  for
  2023
  was
  
  569,898
• For
  some
  context,
  active
  listings
  for
  this
  week
  in
  
  2015
  were
  
  1,012,704 

New
listings
data

While
I
am
thrilled
that
new
listings
data
is
growing
year
over
year,
something
I
have
been
anticipating
for
some
time,
the
growth
in
2024
has
been
disappointing
because
I
had
expected
a
bit
more
by
now.
This
was
my
big
talking
point
on

CNBC
earlier
in
the
year.
Still,
new
listing
data
is
a
positive
story.
Here
are
the
number
of
new
listings
for
last
week
over
the
last
several
years: 

• 2024:
  
  59,854 
• 2023:
  
  48,442
• 2022:
  
  56,258

For
context,
new
listings
data
at
this
time
in
2010
ran
at

326,266.

Price-cut
percentage

Every
year,
one-third
of
all
homes
take
a

price
cut
before
selling
—
this
is
regular
housing
activity
and
this
data
line
is
very
seasonal.
The
price-cut
percentage
can
grow
when
mortgage
rates
increase
and
demand
gets
hit. 

As
inventory
and
demand
grow
year
over
year,
the
price-cut
percentage
data
increases
year
over
year.
So,
we
will
keep
tracking
this
data
line
to
see
how
high
it
goes
this
year.
We
keep
it
simple:
higher
inventory
softness
in
demand
means
price
growth
is
weakening.
As
we
can
see
below,
the
year-over-year
data
is
showing
a
higher
percentage
of
price
cuts.

• 
  2024:
  31.9%
• 
  2023:
  30.5%
• 
  2022:
  17.2%

10-year
yield
and
mortgage
rates

For
those
of
you
who
have
followed
me
for
the
last
12
months,
you
know
how
important
the

4.34%
level
on
the
10-year
yield
is
for
my
economic
work
and
therefore
for
the
mortgage
rate
discussion.
A
break
above
this
level
would
send
mortgage
rates
toward

7.5%-8%.
So
far,
so
good
here.

We
had
the
PCE

inflation
report
come
out
Friday
and
because
some
people
were
expecting
a
hotter
number
than
estimates,
it
was
perceived
to
be
bullish
for
rate
cuts.
However,
the
markets
were
closed
Friday,
so
we
have
to
wait
and
see
how
trading
goes
on
Monday.
The
10-year
yield
channel
is
between
4.25%-3.80%,
which
looks
correct
as
long
as
the
economic
data
stays
firm
and
jobless
claims
don’t
break
higher.
This
means
mortgage
rates
will
likely
remain
in
the
upper
range
of
my

2024
forecast
of
6.75%-7.25%.

There
was
not
too
much
action
in
mortgage
rates
last
week,
but
with
jobs
week
coming
up,
we
could
see
some
movement.
As
you
can
see
below,
the
10-year
yield
has
made
a
massive
move
from
2022
and
has
stayed
above
4%,
even
with
the
progress
we
have
made
with
inflation.
Always
remember,
when
it
comes
to
discussions
about
rates
and
the
Fed
pivoting,
it’s
always
labor
over
inflation
data.

Purchase
application
data

Purchase
application
data
didn’t
move
much
last
week.
It
was
flat
on
a
week-to-week
basis
and
down
15%
year
over
year.

Since
November
2023,
after
making
holiday
adjustments,
we
have
had
10
positive
and
six
negative
purchase
application
prints
and
one
flat
print.
Year
to
date,
we
have
had
four
positive
prints
versus
six
negative
prints
and
one
flat
print.

What
have
2022,
2023,
and
2024
shown
us?
Purchase
apps
made
a
solid
positive
run
up
until
mortgage
rates
started
to
get
back
over
7%.
This
was
similar
to
2023
data,
when
purchase
apps
had
12
weeks
of
a
positive
run-up
until
rates
moved
toward
7%
and
then
8%. 

Week
ahead:
We’ll
see
trading
off
the
inflation
report
and
it’s
jobs
week

First,
the
trading
on
Monday
will
be
exciting
because
of
the
PCE
inflation
report;
some
argue
it
was
hot
and
some
say
it
wasn’t.
The
market
decides
this,
and
bond
trading
will
judge
it
on
Monday
morning.

Also,
Federal
Reserve
Chairman
Powell
talked
on
Friday.
I
believe
Powell’s
crucial
comment
was
that
the
Fed
won’t
overreact
to
significant
disinflation
or
heated
inflation
reports.
I
think
some
people
missed
this.
If
you
want
to
understand
why
the
markets
still
have
three
rate
cuts
priced
in,
it’s
this
mindset.

Then
it’s
jobs
week,
with
four
labor
reports,
and,
of
course,
for
me,
it’s
labor
over
inflation
data,
so
buckle
up!

Want
more
context?
On
the

PowerHouse
podcast
with
HousingWire
CEO
Clayton
Collins,
I
discussed
why
the
data
lines
we
look
at
in
the
Housing
Market
Tracker
are
so
critical
for
those
in
the
housing
industry.