Mortgage
rates
remained
stable
this
week
as
the
personal
consumption
expenditures
(PCE)

inflation
report
matched
economists’
expectations. 

As
a
result,

HousingWire’s
Mortgage
Rates
Center
showed
the
average
30-year
fixed
rate
for
conventional
loans
at
7.17%
on
Tuesday,
up
from
7.16%
one
week
earlier.
At
the
same
time
one
year
ago,
the
30-year
fixed
rate
averaged
6.5%.
Meanwhile,
the
15-year
fixed
rate
averaged
6.43%
on
Tuesday,
down
from
6.51%
one
week
earlier.

“We
had
the
PCE

inflation
report
come
out
Friday
and
because
some
people
were
expecting
a
hotter
number
than
estimates,
it
was
perceived
to
be
bullish
for
rate
cuts,”
HousingWire
lead
analyst
Logan
Mohtashami

wrote
on
Saturday. 

“The
10-year
yield
channel
is
between
4.25%-3.80%,
which
looks
correct
as
long
as
the
economic
data
stays
firm
and
jobless
claims
don’t
break
higher.
This
means
mortgage
rates
will
likely
remain
in
the
upper
range
of
my

2024
forecast
of
6.75%-7.25%.

“Monday’s
economic
data
was
good;
the
manufacturing
data
came
in
at
a
huge
beat
and
the
GDP
(gross
domestic
product)
revisions
were
positive
for
this
quarter’s
upside,”
Mohtashami
added.
“For
the
first
time
in
a
long
time,
both
the
U.S.
manufacturing
data
are
now
in
expansion
territory.
Bond
yields
rose
and
we
have
four
labor
reports
to
work
on
this
week.”

As
of
March
29,
there
were
517,355
single-family
homes
on
the
market,
up
from
512,759
the
week
prior.
During
the
same
week
last
year,
inventory
fell
from
413,883
to
410,734.
The
all-time
inventory
low
was
in
2022
at
240,194,
while
the
inventory
peak
for
2023
was
569,898. 

“We
should
have
close
to
700,000
homes
on
the
market
in
August
or
September,”
Mike
Simonsen,
founder
and
president
of


Altos
Research,
wrote
on

Monday.
“It
won’t
be
a
lot
actually,
but
it’ll
be
the
most
homes
available
since
2019.
The
longer
we
stay
at
higher
mortgage
rates,
the
more
inventory
can
build
back
to
the
old
normal
levels.”

According
to
the
April
2024

Mortgage
Monitor
report
from

Intercontinental
Exchange
(ICE),
homeowners
who
took
out
mortgages
with
near-record-low
rates
in
2020
and
2021
face
much
higher
monthly
payments
even
if
they
move
to
an
equivalently
priced
home.
A
“lateral
move”
of
this
type
would
cost
60%
more
per
month,
ICE
reported.

“Lower
rates
would
ease
the
calculation
for
many
and
make
moves
more
reasonable,”
Andy
Walden,
vice
president
of
enterprise
research
at
ICE
Mortgage
Technology,
said
in
a
statement.
“But
the
net
result
continues
to
be
too
few
homes
for
too
many
buyers.
Until
that
fundamental
mismatch
is
addressed,
simple
supply
and
demand
will
continue
to
press
on
both
inventory
and
affordability.”

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